Continuing to surprise without Dak Prescott, the Cowboys are now 3-0 with Cooper Rush under center. In what could be his last week as the starter, Rush heads to Los Angeles for a matchup against Matt Stafford and the Rams.
The Rams failed to find the end zone on Monday night against their NFC West rival 49ers, but enter as 5.5-point favorites against a red-hot Dallas squad.
Here’s a same-game parlay to help provide entertainment to the late-window games on Sunday:
Los Angeles
-5.5
I’m not sure why the Rams aren’t favored by more in this spot. Returning home against a Cooper Rush-led Cowboys team, this number should be above six.
The Rams are in a perfect buy-low spot after a 24-9 loss on Monday Night Football. While the Rams offense has struggled, their defense has reigned supreme. They are the sixth-ranked defense, per PFF, and are second against the run.
That’s a perfect matchup against a Cowboys team that struggles in the passing game (at least with Rush at QB). They are 29th in pass grade and rely on the run to open up the field. I do not expect Ezekiel Elliott or Tony Pollard to have that much success.
Rush is 3-0 SU and ATS since replacing Prescott and the market is beginning to give him too much respect. Dallas is undefeated with Rush, but it’s come against the Bengals (who started off incredibly slow), the Giants and the Commanders.
Now, they have a real test against a top defense.
The Cowboys' defense should find some success given their No. 3 pass rush grade against a Rams offensive line that has struggled to protect Stafford. Yet, I still expect some success behind the run game and Cooper Kupp en route to a strong win at home.
For what it’s worth, Sean McVay and the Rams have won and covered five straight games on short rest. The combo of McVay and Stafford are 3-0.
Game Total
Under 42.5
In a game where I expect the Rams to cover relatively easily, I expect little-to-no offense from the Cowboys and Rush.
As I mentioned earlier, the Cowboys’ three wins with Rush under center came against the Bengals, Giants and Commanders. Two of those defenses — specifically their NFC East rivals — rank in the bottom 25% in PFF grade.
And still, in those games, Dallas never scored more than 25 points. In fact, every Cowboys game has gone under 42.5, and now they arguably have their tallest task yet: The Rams defense.
Three of the four Los Angeles games have gone under this number as well. The only over came against Atlanta, when 34 points were scored in the second half. And Dallas’ offense isn’t built for that type of explosiveness under Rush.
Both offenses carry plenty of question marks entering Week 5 while defensive success isn’t a question.
I expect Los Angeles to be able to move the ball against Dallas and find the end zone a few times, but it shouldn’t be a high-scoring shootout. Rams win and cover in a low-scoring affair.
Ezekiel Elliott
Under 52.5 Rushing yards
I’ve already mentioned how dominant the Rams rush defense is and how I expect a lopsided victory in favor of L.A. — which would lead to a negative game script and more passing from Dallas — so adding this leg to the parlay makes perfect sense to me.
Elliott has gone under this number in 2-of-4 games this season and in Dallas’ only loss, he finished with 52 yards.
While Elliott does play 60 percent of rushes and has been effective in limited carries, he has yet to face a front seven like the Rams'. Outside of Cincinnati — 10th — every other defense Elliott has faced ranks 19th or worse in rush defense, per PFF.
In a game where I see Los Angeles jumping out to an early lead and forcing Dallas to play from behind, Elliott should see less rushes and therefore less yards on the ground.
Cam Akers
ATD +240
Yes, I’m taking Cam Akers to score a touchdown despite splitting carries with Darrell Henderson.
If there’s a weak spot in this Dallas defense, it’s the run game. Led by Micah Parsons, the Cowboys are an elite pass rush and are fifth in pass DVOA — but they are 25th in rush DVOA.
And when it comes to Akers vs. Henderson inside the red zone, it’s nearly a 50-50 split. Akers has one target to Henderson’s zero — Stafford in general doesn’t throw to his RBs — but he also has two more rushes inside the 20.
According to Action Network’s luck rankings, the Rams are 24th to Dallas’ 6th, meaning the Rams are projected to be heavier favorites. Following my narrative of a Rams cover in a low-scoring bout, I’m backing L.A. to use the run game and punch it in with Akers.
This is a number that our predictive analytics team makes +160, so this number is fair value and a perfect add to round out this same-game parlay.
The Parlay (+1456)
- Rams -5.5 (-110)
- Under 42.5 (-115)
- Ezekiel Elliott Under 52.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
- Cam Akers Anytime TD (+240)
