The 3-1 Pittsburgh Steelers are on the road to take on the 2-2 Dallas Cowboys, ad we have three Steelers vs. Cowboys predictions for Sunday Night Football Week 5, which is sure to be an excellent showdown. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, with the game airing on NBC and streaming live on Peacock and YouTube TV.
The Steelers are consensus 2.5-point favorites over the Cowboys (Steelers -2.5) on the spread, with Pittsburgh -145 favorites to win outright and Dallas +120 underdogs to pull off the upset. The over/under is currently 43.5 points.
The Cowboys got some good news before kickoff on Sunday, as CB Trevon Diggs is active. Micah Parsons has been ruled out for Dallas, along with WR Brandin Cooks. The Steelers are without RBs Jaylen Warren and Cordarrelle Patterson, as well as TE MyCole Pruitt and LB Alex Highsmith.
The Steelers are 5th in the NFL with a +22 point differential, with QB Justin Fields completing 70.6% of his passes for 3 touchdowns and just 1 interception so far this season. The Cowboys rank just 17th in yards per play at 5.4 but come in off a 20-15 win over the Giants.
We have bets on the spread and over/under, as well as a player prop for tonight's non-conference clash. Here are our NFL picks and Sunday Night Football best bets for Cowboys vs. Steelers.
Steelers vs. Cowboys Picks, Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:20 p.m. | |
| 8:20 p.m. | |
| 8:20 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Pick Against the Spread
The narrative surrounding this game will revolve around the absence of Micah Parson and DeMarcus Lawrence, but it has created such a good price on the Cowboys, I simply cannot pass it up. The Steelers offensive line is dealing with injuries as well, struggling to pass protect, as Justin Fields was pressured on 43% of his drop backs against a Colts defense that I do not hold in high regard.
The Cowboys do not have a semblance of a running game offensively, but I am fairly confident they won't bother trying to establish it against the 3rd-ranked defense in term of DVOA against the run. Prescott was ultra-efficient in their win at New York, completing over 80% of his passes. With extra time to prepare, the quick passing game should be the focal point of this offense once again.
None of the Pittsburgh passing metrics defensively concern me. The Steelers are 14th in DVOA against the pass, and 16th in yards per attempt allowed. Their schedule has not been daunting up to this point, playing against an immobile Kirk Cousins in Week 1, Bo Nix in Week 2, and a banged-up Justin Herbert for two and a half quarters in Week 3 prior to surrendering a 108.3 passer rating to the Colts' duo of Anthony Richardson and Joe Flacco last week.
I will gladly take the points with the stronger offensive line and the better quarterback against what might be an overrated defense.
Pick: Cowboys +2.5 (-105)
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Over/Under Pick
By Billy Ward
This is a tricky spot to evaluate the total in, due to the nature of the Dallas defense. They’re slightly below average against the pass and taking on a team that doesn’t throw especially well.
The Cowboys are the NFL’s worst team at stopping the run (by DVOA), though, which bodes well for the Pittsburgh offense – if they can keep things close.
Pittsburgh is favored by three here, which makes it fairly likely that things are at least close enough to continue exploiting the Cowboys’ weakness defensively.
On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh is a roughly league-average passing defense and borderline elite rushing unit. This was about the time last season when Dallas shifted to an extremely high pass rate, and it would make sense for them to do so again here.
The defensive splits also mean the spread and total correlate fairly well, with a game Pittsburgh covers lining up well with the over, and vice-versa. Parlaying those (in either or both directions) might be the sharpest way to go here.
Pick: Over 43.5 (-115)
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Player Prop Pick
MyCole Pruitt has been ruled out, which matters to pretty much nobody except me. Pruitt has missed the last two games, and Freiermuth has posted a snap rate and route participation above 75% in both of them. He's 2nd on the team in target share at 17.4%, behind only George Pickens. Freiermuth has a solid role in the offense, and the playing time is ticking up.
Dallas has hardly allowed any production to tight ends, but they've faced an extremely soft TE schedule (Cleveland, New Orleans, Baltimore, New York Giants). David Njoku is the only solid TE the Cowboys have gone up against, and he led Cleveland with four catches for 44 yards before leaving early in the second half with an injury.
Without Demarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons, Dallas is going to have a tough time getting pressure on Justin Fields, which is big for the passing game. Volume is the main concern, but the pass attempts are ticking up for Fields, and this should be a competitive game. Freiermuth has 4+ catches in every game this season.
Pick: Pat Freiermuth Over 3.5 Receptions (-108)
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Sunday Night Football Steelers vs. Cowboys Odds
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +122 |
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -145 |
- Cowboys vs. Steelers spread: Steelers -2.5
- Cowboys vs. Steelers over/under: 43.5 points
- Cowboys vs. Steelers moneyline: Steelers -145, Cowboys +120
- Cowboys vs. Steelers best bets:Cowboys to cover the spread; Over 43.5
