Since the dawn of betting, the dream of turning a tiny amount of money into a lot has been the dream of many players. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., they all offer the same appeal. Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can now add same-game parlays to that list. So, we have an NFL parlay for Cowboys vs. Texans on Monday Night Football this week.
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate, given the tangled web of correlation between each. They are fun, though — and just like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
Of course, you could also make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 Challenge," which hit in Week 7, we'll be operating with a similar goal here.
Of course, with primetime games on multiple days every week, we'll need a winner on each day of the week, but we'll also have more chances to bring it home. Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for my Monday Night Football parlay for Week 11 on FanDuel.
Cowboys vs. Texans Parlay
- Under 41.5 (-105)
- CeeDee Lamb Over 6.5 Receptions (+142)
- CeeDee Lamb Anytime TD (+220)
Cowboys vs. Texans Parlay Odds: +1404 | $10 Bet Wins $140.4
Leg 1: Under 41.5 (-105)
FanDuel has the total at both half a point higher than the rest of the market and with lower juice on the underside of the equation. That makes it a solid starting point — as well as a reason to build this parlay on FanDuel.
In two games since losing Dak Prescott, Dallas is averaging just 13.5 points per game — with most of the scoring coming against a bad Falcons defense. The Cowboys have had little to no run game to speak of all season and without Prescott, their passing game is just as bad.
It's hard to see them getting much going here against the Texans number-two ranked defense by DVOA. In turn, that means Houston won't have to attack down the stretch, either.
Houston has a negative Pass Rate Over Expectation, to begin with, so they'll likely skew to the run fairly heavily if and when they get off to a lead. That slows down the game and thus limits scoring.
The Texans haven't topped 23 points since they had all three of their top wide receivers active, which also makes it hard for this game to go over the total without the Cowboys' offense contributing.
Leg 2: CeeDee Lamb Over 6.5 Receptions (+142)
After just one game with double-digit targets over the first five weeks of the season, CeeDee Lamb has averaged 12.25 targets over the past four weeks, with no noticeable slowdown with Rush under center.
What has changed is where he sees those targets. Over the past two weeks, Lambs average depth of target (aDOT) is just 6.4 yards, more than 2.5 yards shorter than his mark before Week 9.
The Cowboys are trying to make things easy for Rush, which results in, theoretically, more catchable targets for Lamb. While his typical pass isn't quite as accurate as it was with Prescott, being used as a safety valve means more easy looks.
Plenty of short Lamb receptions would work well with the under, but we're also getting slightly better odds thanks to the negative correlation between player overs and the game under. That, and the plus-money nature of this side of the prop.
Leg 3: CeeDee Lamb Anytime TD (+220)
Our anytime touchdown projections have Lamb as the biggest edge in that market, with more than double the edge of any other player.
I was initially hesitant to include it in the parlay, given that we already had a positive Lamb prop. I thought the odds would potentially be lower due to the correlation there.
However, the algorithm evidently puts more weight on the under than it does the Lamb receptions, bringing the total odds to +1404. Dallas has also made an effort to get Lamb involved in the run game, with three carries over the last two weeks.
If any Cowboy is going to find the end zone, it's probably Lamb. It also correlates positively with his receptions over, so I like the edge at north of fourteen to one.
Cowboys vs. Texans Parlay Odds: +1404 | $10 Bet Wins $140.4
