There's plenty of uncertainty on both sides as we look for Cowboys vs Titans picks on Thursday Night Football.
With Derrick Henry listed as doubtful for what is a meaningless game for Tennessee, what should we expect from starting quarterback (checks notes) Josh Dobbs? Will Dallas come out and dominate from the start, even though it will likely be without Tony Pollard? How much will the Titans show this week ahead of a crucial matchup in Week 18 with the Jaguars?
Our staff of betting analysts has scoured Cowboys vs Titans odds and found one bet on a total and two player props for Thursday Night Football. Check them out below.
Cowboys vs Titans Picks
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Billy Ward: Despite the NFL's best efforts to give us a compelling Thursday night game, circumstances have once again intervened. In this case, it's the injury status of Derrick Henry (who is doubtful), and the fact that this game is effectively meaningless for the Titans. Their season comes down to their Week 18 matchup with the Jaguars, regardless of how Week 17 plays out for either team.
However, this game isn't meaningless for the Cowboys. They've clinched the playoffs, but could hypothetically climb as high as the number one seed (though they'd need a lot of help.)
Which means they should come out in full force to start this game. As is often the case with the NFL's stronger teams, they tend to play faster in the first half of games than the second. Beyond the pace, they're facing an extreme pass funnel defense in the Titans, who rank 27th in DVOA against the pass but 2nd against the run.
Thus, with the assumption that the full game total of 39.5 is efficient and the 12-point spread reflects the eventual game flow, we should see more scoring early on in this one. Dallas will attack until they build a comfortable lead, but then (inefficiently) attempt to run out the clock.
The best line is the over 20 at -110 on FanDuel, though DraftKings' over 20.5 at even money is a solid bet, as well.
Pick: 1H Over 20 |
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Ricky Henne: Let’s get crazy here and back Zeke in a big way.
Elliott may not be the elite back he was in his heyday – and probably deserves to play second fiddle to Pro Bowler Tony Pollard even more than does –but he’s a flat-out magnet for the end zone in 2022. His 11 touchdowns are the ninth-most in the league, and he’s on an absolute tear right now finding paydirt in eight straight games.
Elliott’s the Cowboys clear-cut preferred running back in goal-to-go situations. His 23 carries inside the 10-yard line are tied for the third-most in the NFL and are nearly double Pollard’s 11 totes. Oh, and by the way, he ranks among the league leaders despite missing two games with a balky knee.
Now Elliot faces a Titans defense that’ll be a shell of itself Thursday night. By now we all know that the AFC South will be decided by Week 18’s tilt between Tennessee and Jacksonville. Vrabel’s apparently willing to lose this week’s battle to win next week’s war as he’s resting a significant amount of his starters. That means Elliott now has a tasty matchup against a skeleton crew of several backups instead of facing a full-strength Titans defense that Football Outsiders ranks second in rush DVOA (20.1%).
Another boost for Elliott is Pollard’s iffy status. Pollard didn’t practice with a thigh injury, and the quick turnaround for Thursday Night Football makes him a true game-time decision. Even if he does suit up you’ve got to think his snaps would likely be limited, especially if Dallas starts pulling away.
I’d love to hammer a single Zeke anytime touchdown, but unfortunately the juice isn’t worth it to me. It’s currently between -140 to -175 as of this writing. Instead, I’m pivoting to two-plus touchdowns. I tend to shy away from players scoring multiple TDs, but for me, this one’s worth taking a stab at. I managed to grab it at +350 at BetMGM but would have bet it even at the +300 several sportsbooks are offering it at.
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Tony Sartori: Before we even dive into this pick, you may be asking yourself "why is this line so low"? This week, It has been announced that the Titans are benching every key player as Thursday's game is meaningless while they will battle It out for the AFC South title against the Jacksonville Jaguars next week.
Since they are sitting every key player, the market for Cowboys' passing and receiving yards has crashed because if they are up by 30 at halftime, then they will obviously stop throwing. However, the market overreacted, and Lamb could still get over this number even if he only plays one half of football.
The Titans' secondary is atrocious, ranking second-to-last in the league in passing yards allowed per game. Opposing WR1 have torched Tennessee's secondary recently:
- Week 15: Keenan Allen, 86 Yards
- Week 13: AJ Brown, 119 Yards
- Week 12: Tee Higgins, 114 Yards (Ja'Marr Chase was out)
Meanwhile, Lamb has been on a tear recently, clearing this number in eight of his last 10 games. The problem resides in the fact that Lamb may not even play in the second half if the Cowboys lay the lumber on Tennessee since the Titans will not even be trying.
If that happens, can he clear 68 yards in the first half? Considering that Lamb racked up 109 first half receiving yards last week against a much stronger Eagles secondary, he should have no problem clearing this total against the lowly Titans.
