The Dallas Cowboys look to keep the ball rolling against the Tennessee Titans on Thursday night in what sets up to be a blowout win in front of the Dallas faithful.
Titans running back Derrick Henry is out as well as backup quarterback Malik Willis, leaving third-stringer Joshua Dobbs under center for his first NFL start. There’s a lot of unknown surrounding the Tennessee offense, which will be unable to lean on its workhorse running back Henry.
Dallas could be without Tony Pollard, but that has no impact on this stark 13.5-point spread or the 40.5-point total.
One way to get through what could be another brutal primetime game is a 5-1 same-game parlay and I’ve got you covered for Thursday Night Football.
Treylon Burks
Over 24.5 Receiving Yards
Treylon Burks, the most talented skill position player on the Titans' roster, did not haul in a catch last week against Houston, but he did get involved in the ground game (15 yards).
Prior to last week, Burks had topped 20 yards in six of eight games, including each of the previous four. He’s a big-play threat and as explosive as it gets. All it takes is just one catch for Burks to eclipse this number.
Without Henry, Tennessee needs to figure out how to move the ball downfield. Getting it to their most dynamic athlete should be top of mind.
As injuries pile up on the Dallas secondary, their pass defense has begun to take a step back. In the last two games, both Gardner Minshew and Trevor Lawrence racked up 300 yards.
Dobbs is nowhere close to the passers that those two are. In fact, it’s hard to even quantify how he’ll perform on Thursday night. But there are obvious weaknesses in the Dallas secondary as the season comes to an end.
Following the same-game narrative where Tennessee is forced into a more pass-heavy game script — we have no idea what’ll happen without Henry and with Dobbs under center — adding Burks, who has big-play ability is the perfect complement.
Michael Gallup
Over 32.5 Receiving Yards
The last time I took a stab at Michael Gallup, he ended up scoring two touchdowns against Indianapolis. But he was unable to eclipse his receiving yards prop.
I’m going back to the well here with the Dallas receiver. Since Oct. 30, Gallup has become heavily involved in the Cowboys offense. He’s seen at least four targets in seven of his past eight games, and has broken 30 yards six times.
Even in blowout games, Gallup has gotten a lot of receiving work. He caught four passes against Indianapolis and totaled 41 yards against Minnesota.
Tony Pollard also enters Thursday night questionable, and if that’s the case, there’s extra targets to be had. Ezekiel Elliott is one of the best pass blockers in football and will likely stay back to block, opening up avenues underneath for the rest of the Dallas receivers.
My colleague Sean Koerner is on Gallup’s receptions prop (over 2.5) and I agree with his analysis. This is a porous Tennessee secondary that is likely to be torched early and often.
Gallup should be a primary beneficiary of the Pollard news. Lamb will still get a heavy workload, but the attention is always on the No. 1 receiver. Gallup should quietly have another solid game and break 30 yards once again on Thursday night.
Dallas Cowboys
-6.5 First Half
Following the game script of a Cowboys blowout win where Tennessee is forced to pass a lot, we’re backing the Cowboys to put up a dominant first half.
There’s just not much going for the Titans offense. We’ve seen how Trace McSorley fared as the third-stringer in Arizona’s offense and Dobbs shouldn’t find much success either. There’s a lot of unknown, but I’m not sure if Tennessee is going to be able to score.
The Dallas offense, meanwhile, has been on fire. They’ve put up 27 or more points in every game since Oct. 30, when the Cowboys blew out Chicago. Four times they’ve broken 40 points in that span.
The Titans' pass defense stands no chance against the likes of Ceedee Lamb and Michael Gallup. They are 27th in pass DVOA while the Cowboys offense ranks 13th. The Cowboys should be able to put their foot on the gas and take it over whenever they so please.
On the other side of the ball, Dallas ranks second in pass DVOA and fifth in rush DVOA. Without Henry — it’ll be the Hassan Haskins show — the Cowboys should have no problem stopping Tennessee in their tracks.
Despite the Dallas struggles over the last two weeks in the passing game, those were against more than capable quarterbacks. This is a completely different situation, with a third-stringer who should have difficulty both under pressure and with reading through his progressions.
The stark spread opens the door for a backdoor cover in the second half, and Dallas could take it easy after a hefty lead.
To avoid that, I’m backing Dallas over the first half spread. They have the edge in every aspect of this game and should dominate at home as they continue their push toward making an improbable comeback to lift the NFC East crown.
The Parlay (+519)
T. Burks o24.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Cowboys 1H -6.5 (-150)
M. Gallup o32.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
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