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Curtis Samuel Receptions
| Prop | Curtis Samuel Over 4.5 Receptions (-125) |
| Matchup | Commanders vs. Bears |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | BetMGM |
It is without question that Curtis Samuel has been utilized thoroughly in Carson Wentz’s passing scheme. He has amassed 45 targets (7.5 per game) and leads the Commanders with a 22.06% target share.
Books are quickly starting to catch on about his role in the offense, and it appears that this will be a popular prop tonight.
Curtis Samuel over 4.5 receptions is the most bet player prop for Thursday Night Football.
100% of bets are on the OVER at @BetMGM.
— John Ewing 🦁 (@johnewing) October 13, 2022
I am going to bet Samuel's receptions over receiving yards.
Many outlets have reported that Carson Wentz will be throwing tonight despite dealing with a bicep tendon strain. I believe this news could be a factor in his deep-throwing accuracy, but that is not a situation where Samuel should suffer.
Samuel's impressive number of targets has been achievable because of his short route tree. He is running routes close to the line of scrimmage in the slot and averaging a team-low 4.84 average depth of target compared to his other wide receiver teammates, which has benefited Wentz in completing high-percentage passes.
Rookie wide receiver Jahan Dotson and tight end Logan Thomas will miss this game against the Bears. Both players account for 20.58% of Wentz’s targets, so those will have to go elsewhere, creating more potential looks to go Samuel’s way.
Commanders -1 | Bears +1
The spot here is fantastic against the Bears. Samuel will likely be going against opposing second-round rookie cornerback Kyler Gordon, who defends the slot CB position the most out of anyone. It is safe to say Gordon has not had an excellent start to his career, with an abysmal 43.5 coverage grade ranking 93rd out of 108 in his position, per Pro Football Focus. Gordon also ranks first with 29 receptions allowed, on an 80.6% catch rate, which fits perfectly with the prop we are attacking here with Samuel.
Bears CB Jaylen Johnson is also healthy and set to pick things up. He is their best defender but plays out wide, meaning he'll likely not see Samuel much.
Samuel is averaging 6.4 receptions per game and has achieved this prop in four of his five games to start the season. Paired with his friendly matchup and a dependable volume, I love for this trend to continue and for him to hit his receptions props vs. the Bears tonight.
