Lost amid the controversial finish to Saturday night's Week 17 game between the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys was a spectacular play by Dak Prescott and the Cowboys — a play so spectacular, in fact, that it's mathematically the most valuable play so far this year.
DAK PRESCOTT TO CEEDEE LAMB FOR THE 92-YARD TOUCHDOWN 🤯
First TD scorer (+700) ✅pic.twitter.com/DTcnyD01uk
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) December 31, 2023
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We'll let our lead betting news analyst, Brandon Anderson, explain (via his Twitter/X):
"That Dak Prescott 92-yard TD to CeeDee Lamb was the most valuable play of the NFL season thus far.
"Don't believe me?
"Third and 13 from the 8-yard line is an extremely negative game position. That's worth about -1.9 expected points heading into that play — with a likely punt out of your own end zone and a short field for the opponent.
"Instead, Prescott narrowly avoided a safety (sacks are a QB stat) and hit Lamb on a bomb for the score.
"That play was worth 8.9 Expected Points Added (EPA), the highest play of the season thus far. It increased Dallas's chance of winning from 57 to 78%.
"For reference, the previous high EPA play by an offensive player this year was a 78-yard TD on 3rd and 2 to Tyreek Hill versus Washington, worth 7.4 EPA per pro-football-reference. This play was worth an extra half a field goal, and that's not even accounting for the near safety.
"MVP favorite Lamar Jackson has seven plays all season over 3.6 EPA. He only has one game all season where *two* of his plays combined beat Dak's one throw, and only barely (Week 11 versus Jake Browning's Bengals).
"Jackson's best EPA play against the 49ers was his 39-yard pass to Gus Edwards, worth 2.9 EPA — technically equal in value to the -2.9 EPA on the safety he took running 25 yards backwards.
"Lamar Jackson has 63.7 EPA all season, per rbsdm. Dak Prescott had 1/7 of that total on one play tonight.
"Dak Prescott just made the Most Valuable Play of the 2023 NFL season."
