Dak Prescott is the new NFL MVP favorite after the Cowboys dismantled the Eagles on Sunday Night Football.
The Cowboys QB supplanted 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy as the favorite despite Purdy's perch as the NFL's leader in expected points added per play + completion percentage over expected (EPA/play + CPOE), the single-most important advanced metric in grading the MVP market.
Prescott ranks No. 2 on that rating. Do keep in mind, however, that Jimmy Garoppolo ranked highly, year-in, year-out, according to EPA/play + CPOE. It's a Shanahan thing — but Purdy has shown enough under that system to warrant MVP conversation.
The Cowboys have had the best offense in football since Week 7, according to EPA/play. And the team's defense has consistently showed out, ranking No. 3 overall through Week 14.
2023 NFL MVP Odds
| Dak Prescott | +150 |
| Brock Purdy | +200 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +800 |
| Jalen Hurts | +800 |
| Lamar Jackson | +800 |
| Tyreek Hill | +1000 |
| Josh Allen | +1600 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +1600 |
Odds are according to FanDuel. Below were the odds last week.
| Jalen Hurts | +350 |
| Dak Prescott | +350 |
| Brock Purdy | +350 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +600 |
| Lamar Jackson | +750 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +800 |
| Tyreek Hill | +2000 |
| Christian McCaffrey | +2000 |
| CJ Stroud | +2500 |
| Trevor Lawrence | +3000 |
| Josh Allen | +3300 |
A test against the Bills next Sunday will help truly solidify this market. A win may push Prescott toward minus-money territory. A Bills win — especially if it's a dominating one — may send Josh Allen's odds through the roof. The Bills QB already ranks () in EPA/play + CPOE, and plenty of analytics experts regard him as an NFL MVP favorite, despite his low position on the current odds boards.
If the Bills make a run, winning out the rest of the season to win the division, Allen will be the frontrunner here. Likewise for the Dolphins, which still have games against the Cowboys, at the Ravens and the Bills on their schedule.
As for Purdy, the road ahead is simpler. The only game against a top team is at home against the Ravens — but a tough test nonetheless. A home game against the Rams in Week 18 might not even need San Francisco to trot out their starters.
