Sunday Night Football gave us the biggest game of the NFL season so far, but it was over before it even started.
The much ballyhooed Cowboys went to San Francisco and got absolutely gobsmacked by a team that nearly scored its namesake — and could've if it wanted to — in a 42-10 win.
It was just the latest Dallas drubbing by the 49ers after San Francisco wins each of the past two postseasons, and the only surprising thing about it was how totally unsurprising it felt. The 49ers own Dak Prescott and the Cowboys, and a matchup of what was supposed to be the two best teams in the NFC instead felt like a mismatch from the opening drive.
Sunday Night Was a Coaching Loss for the Cowboys
More than anything else Sunday night, the stark contrast in coaching could not have been clearer.
On one side, the Dallas staff looked completely outmatched.
Mike McCarthy had no play-calling answers for his offense, which scored its only TD on a go-ball to speedy KaVontae Turpin in motion — the one play the Cowboys ran all night that looked like something Kyle Shanahan or Mike McDaniel might actually use in 2023.
As for the Cowboys' defense, they over-pursued 49ers all night and were constantly caught out of place as the weak spots in Dan Quinn's scheme got exposed time and again.
The Cowboys entered the night No. 1 in the league defending passes to both the left and right side of the field, but bottom five against passes over the middle. So what did San Francisco do? Why, the 49ers repeatedly peppered the middle of the field with passes, of course, picking on Dallas' weakness!
Brock Purdy threw all 4 of his TD passes from outside the tackle box, the most in a game in the NGS era.
Purdy completed 7 of 10 passes over 10 air yards for 166 yards & 3 TD. He leads the NFL in completion percentage (72.1%) on such passes this season.
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— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 9, 2023
George Kittle had a career night, turning all three of his catches into touchdowns. San Francisco took advantage of the Cowboys' defensive speed and pursing ability by letting Dallas chase after them all night, then beating them with screens and throws back into the space just vacated by those defenders. The Niners even pulled off a double-reverse throw-back TD to a wide open Kittle.
Kyle Shanahan's scheme has a new hero every week:
- Week 5: Kittle, 3 catches for 67 yards and 3 TDs
- Week 4: Christian McCaffrey, 4 TDs and 177 combined yards
- Week 3: Deebo Samuel, 129 combined yards and a TD
- Week 2: McCaffrey 137 yards and a score
- Week 1: Brandon Aiyuk, 129 yards receiving and 2 TDs
Dallas had no hero on Sunday night.
The Cowboys can't win with coaching. They have to out-talent teams instead — and they've done so three times already this season. But talent isn't enough against top opponents like San Francisco.
Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers are making Brock Purdy look better. The Dallas coaching staff makes Dak Prescott look worse. Sometimes, it really is that simple.
Dak Prescott Wasn't Good Enough — and the Cowboys Aren't, Either
Prescott had another miserable outing against the 49ers.
He threw for just 154 yards and one score and tossed three interceptions, finishing with a miserable -0.42 EPA per play. The Cowboys offense was even worse, finishing at 40% Success Rate on series, in the first percentile against a defense many thought would allow Dallas to move the ball successfully.
The truth is that the game wasn't even as close as the final score.
San Francisco outgained Dallas 421 to 197 in yardage. The Niners held the Cowboys to just eight first downs and didn't let them into the red zone all night. They forced four turnovers and possessed the ball 37 minutes. And it would've been worse if San Francisco hadn't taken its foot off the gas late.
Coming into the season, I was high on Dallas futures because it felt like the team answered all its questions this offseason. The Cowboys brought in a second corner in Stephon Gilmore, got a second receiver in Brandin Cooks, addressed the run defense, and jettisoned Kellen Moore.
It turns out none of those changes hit.
Gilmore has been fine, but Dallas lost star corner Trevon Diggs and was left with the same hole at corner. Cooks has done little at WR. The run defense is still leaky and the play calling has been worse without Moore, especially in the red zone.
It's honestly hard to decide whether Sunday night was worse for the Dallas offense or the defense.
The Cowboys did little offensively outside of one play, the defense allowed 42 points and felt like they got off the hook doing that. Fred Warner was everywhere, and Dak Prescott continues to post the lowest ADOT in the league in a scheme that just isn't elevating the talent on this offense or helping its playmakers succeed.
At the end of the day, it feels like the same old Cowboys.
Dallas drops to 3-2, now two games behind both the Eagles and 49ers in the race for the NFC 1-seed. That relegates the Cowboys to the 5-seed at best in the NFC, for now, and it means Cowboys futures are trending down in a big way until we see this team show up against a real opponent.
It might be time to put all that stock into the 49ers and Brock Purdy instead.
The 49ers Are the Real Deal — And So Is Brock Purdy
San Francisco is the real deal and the clear Super Bowl favorite.
The 49ers are firing on all cylinders on both sides of the ball, and Brock Purdy remains unbeaten when he takes 50% of the snaps. San Francisco gets another test next week against Cleveland's hot defense, and a Dec. 3 trip to Philadelphia looms large in the race for the NFC 1-seed.
The 49ers are the best team in the softer conference, and with Buffalo and Baltimore stumbling earlier in the day and muddying the AFC picture even further, San Francisco is the Super Bowl favorite.
And it's starting to become clear that the 49ers are favored because of — not in spite of — Brock Purdy.
Purdy threw a career-high four TDs in the win and only stopped there because the 49ers were too far ahead to bother keeping him in the game. He finished at 0.71 EPA per play, 98th percentile, and did that one week after going nearly perfect at 20-of-21 as a passer.
Purdy's paced numbers of 4,321 yards and 31 TDs aren't exactly eye-popping, but he's yet to throw a single interception this season and — oh, right — has still never lost a regular season game as a starter. He's 10-0 lifetime, and it might be time to admit Purdy is less Mr. Irrelevant and actually quite relevant indeed.
This is no longer just a get-the-ball-to-the-playmakers offense. Purdy played one of his best games as a pro against a Dallas defense most had tabbed as best in the league entering the season. He was throwing absolute heat all night, hitting guys in stride, keeping this offense humming at the highest level.
It's easy to say, "Well, sure, but any quarterback could do this for Kyle Shanahan's offense," but the truth of the matter is pretty clear at this point: Only one QB actually has done this in Shanny's offense, and his name is Brock Purdy.
Purdy entered Week 5 as the NFL's EPA leader and only widened his gap, per RBSDM:
You may not think EPA matters, but history says otherwise. Over the past decade, every MVP but one finished the season top-two in EPA, and seven of them (70%) finished No. 1.
Purdy is adding more value to his team than any other player. That's literally what EPA measures.
Oh, you think Christian McCaffrey is the MVP? You mean the guy that's so valuable he caught two balls and rushed for under 3 yards per carry, fumbling at the goal line and finishing with negative EPA in a game his team won 42-10?
Oh, you think what Purdy's doing doesn't count because it's Shanahan's system and Purdy was Mr. Irrelevant? Kurt Warner was pretty irrelevant as a grocery bagger, too, right up until he wasn't. Joe Montana definitely benefited from Bill Walsh's system and Jerry Rice at receiver, but he was pretty valuable. Tom Brady got to play for two decades with Bill Belichick.
At some point, we have to accept what's in front of us. It doesn't really matter whether Purdy could do it for another coach in another system with other playmakers or on a cold, wet night in Stoke. It only matters that Purdy is already doing it, right now, in the actual world we live in.
Brock Purdy plays the most important position in sports for the best team in football, and he's playing that position at peak level and has never lost a professional game. Sounds pretty valuable to me.
I bet Purdy to win MVP at +5000 before the season — begrudgingly, I might add — and he's down to +700 at FanDuel on Sunday night and dropping.
Purdy isn't Kurt Warner or Montana or Brady. Luckily for him, he doesn't have to be. He just has to be Brock Purdy, quarterback leader of this incredible San Francisco 49ers offense.
And right now he's pretty darn valuable doing exactly that for a coach helping him succeed, in stark contrast to Dak Prescott and the failing Cowboys.
