The Dallas Cowboys (1-2) and New York Giants (1-2) will kick off NFL Week 4 on Thursday Night Football tonight. The game is scheduled to start at 8:15 p.m. ET from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J., streaming exclusively on Prime Video.
My Cowboys vs. Giants prediction for Thursday Night Football is on the over/under. I see many factors that lead me to believe this will not be a high-scoring game.
The Cowboys are consensus 5.5-point favorites over the Giants, with the game total set at 45 points. The spread opened at Cowboys -4, while the total has not moved much. Dallas is currently -250 on the moneyline, while New York is +200 to pull off a big upset.
Dallas is favored despite back-to-back home losses to the Saints and Ravens by scores of 44-19 and 28-25 respectively. The good news for Dallas is that Dak Prescott finished with 379 passing yards and 2 touchdowns without an interception against Baltimore, showing signs of improvement that were too late to win that game. The Giants, meanwhile, finally got their first win of the season last week against the Browns. Daniel Jones played well with 236 passing yards and 2 touchdowns, but Malik Nabers was the star of the show with 8 catches for 78 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Sean Koerner's Cowboys vs. Giants Prediction
SPREAD
I am passing on betting the spread because my projections are in line with it and I see no edge.
MONEYLINE
I'm also not betting either team's moneyline.
TOTAL
My Cowboys vs. Giants best bet is on the under for Thursday Night Football.
My Pick: Under 45.5 (Bet to 45)
Cowboys vs. Giants Odds
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | -240 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | +195 |
- Cowboys vs. Giants spread: Cowboys -5.5
- Cowboys vs. Giants over/under: 45 points
- Cowboys vs. Giants moneyline: Cowboys -250, Giants +200
- 83% of bets and 80% of the money are on the Cowboys to cover the spread.
- 66% of bets and 62% of the money are on the over.
- 82% of bets and 89% of the money on the moneyline are on the Cowboys.
Cowboys vs. Giants Preview for Thursday Night Football
Last week, I was on Over 47.5 for Ravens vs. Cowboys. This week, as the Cowboys travel for Thursday Night Football, I’m seeing a lot of factors that have me on the under.
Dak Prescott was much better at home than on the road last season, ranking first in EPA/dropback at home while 10th on the road. So far this season, he's 22nd at home and 30th on the road. Maybe it has something to do with his “Yeah, here we go” cadence being more audible at Jerry’s World. We also may see a more lively Giants crowd then usual considering they're coming off a win and now have a generational talent to root for in Malik Nabers.
Prescott's efficiency has taken a noticeable hit this season, which could be do to a couple of different factors. Dallas moved on from left tackle Tyron Smith, who was a stalwart on their offensive line for 13 seasons and a five-time All-Pro.
First-round-rookie Tyler Guyton may eventually become a high end left tackle, but he’s off to a bit of a rough start as a rookie, allowing eight pressures through three games. While that isn’t too bad, a reminder that it took Tyron Smith nine games to allow his eighth pressure last season. Extra pressure from Prescott's blindside could be a reason for his dip in efficiency this season. Guyton will likely square off against Brian Burns often on Thursday night. Burns has generated 15 pressures (ninth in the NFL) this season, and we could see him disrupt a handful of Prescott's dropbacks.
Prescott also hasn't clicked with top target CeeDee Lamb, who missed most of training camp due to his hold out. While I have no doubt the duo will get going eventually, it may not happen on a short week on the road. Lamb’s ankle injury may be also be impacting his play more than he or the team is be letting on.
Either way, this Dallas offense isn’t as quite as potent as it was last season. Also, a lot of the Cowboys' production last week against the Ravens came in garbage time, including getting an extra possession by recovering an onside kick.
Similar to Prescott, Daniel Jones has pretty sharp home/away splits, but he has been more productive on the road. Jones ranks 50th out of 53 quarterbacks in EPA/dropback at home and 28th on the road. So far this season, he's seventh on the road out of 33 quarterbacks compared to 30th at home.
I expect that the Giants will plan on attacking the Cowboys defense with a run-heavy game plan. While Dallas has been around league average in terms of EPA/dropback, it's dead last in EPA/rush attempt allowed. The Cowboys probably aren’t nearly as bad as that would suggest considering they have faced two high-end rushing attacks in the Saints and Ravens this season, but the Giants will still look to test them on the ground.
I’m not sure an increase in Devin Singletary rushing plays favors a scoring environment that screams, "Bet the over!" at 45 points, especially in a season where games are averaging 2.7 fewer points per game through three games than last year.
The Cowboys defense is also due for regression in terms of red zone touchdown percentage allowed. Dallas has allowed opponents to score on 90% of red-zone trips this season. While we can certainly expect poor defenses to allow a higher rate of drives that reach the red zone, touchdown percentage allowed is more likely to regress towards the league average in the 55% range.
For reference, the team that allowed the highest red zone touchdown percentage last season was the Browns at 71%, and they were considered one of the best defenses in the NFL. We should expect fewer red-zone trips to turn into touchdowns against the Cowboys, lowering the scoring potential for their games.
Do you think more rush attempts by Dowdle and Singletary warrant a total as high as 45 after such low-scoring weeks to start the season?
Pick: Under 45.5 (Bet to 45)
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How to Watch: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Location: | MetLife Stadium |
| Date: | Thursday, Sept. 26 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Prime Video |
Cowboys vs. Giants is scheduled for a 8:15 p.m. ET start time, live from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford N.J., on Thursday night. The game is will be streamed exclusively on Prime Video.
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