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Dalvin Cook Rushing Yards
| Prop | Dalvin Cook Over 78.5 Rushing Yards (-110) |
| Matchup | Bears vs. Vikings |
| Time | 1 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
Let's state the obvious: Dalvin Cook is averaging a career-low 4.4 yards per carry, and it's been hard to see the RB's usual self through the first four weeks of the season. He has been inefficient and was battling a shoulder injury.
I think that should change in Week 5 against the Bears as Cook gets healthier.
Justin Fields certainly has not done any favors for his defense on the field, with his offense ranking dead last in net drive success rate. Opponents are running the ball at a 56.97% clip against the Bears, the highest in the league by almost 9%, leading to defensive fatigue. As a result, the Bears rank 24th in DVOA against the run this season.
As for opponent rushing efficiency, the Bears have allowed the third-highest explosive rush rate. Packers duo Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon combined for 193 yards on 33 carries, while Texans rookie RB Damien Pierce ran 20 times for 80 yards and Saquon Barkley totaled 146 rushing yards on 31 carries.
Cook gets some home … cooking this week against the Bears. Per Football Outsiders, the Vikings have the fourth-best overall DVOA when playing at home compared to 25th on the road. It's an extreme split, and having the crowd behind the team has clearly helped create effective drives.
The public believes the Vikings should dominate this game, with Minnesota entering Sunday as 7.5-point favorites. The Vikings have won their last five home games in which Cook has been active, and he has averaged 111.2 rushing yards per game in those victories, going over this 78.5 total in every game.
I confidently see the Vikings handling business and letting Cook trample the Bears on the ground the whole game. This rushing yards prop screams buy low as long as Cook's shoulder holds up.
