Damar Hamlin is still the substantial favorite to win Comeback Player of the Year despite being active for just one game.
Hamlin was seen emotional as teammate Damien Harris laid motionless on the ground vs. the Giants last week with a neck injury. The safety was inactive for that contest as he continues to recover from suffering a cardiac arrest during a game in January. He tweeted the following after witnessing medical personnel cart off Harris, who is expected to fully recover from his injury.
Still Healing ❤️🩹3️⃣🫶🏾
— 𝐃𝐚𝐦𝐚𝐫 𝐇𝐚𝐦𝐥𝐢𝐧 (@HamlinIsland) October 16, 2023
It is unclear when Hamlin is due to suit up next. In the one game he was active for — vs. the Dolphins on Oct. 1 — starting safety Jordan Poyer was out with an injury, necessitating Hamlin's services as a backup. Hamlin mostly served special teams duties that game.
The next best contender is Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (+430), who contemplated retirement after three concussions last season threatened his career. Tagovailoa has overcome those injuries to be the NFL MVP favorite and leads the league in expected points added per play + completion percentage over expected (EPA/play + CPOE), the single most important metric in grading MVP candidates.
Most of the other best candidates also returned from injury in one form or another. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (+1400) was forced to miss the Ravens' last six games in 2022, including a narrow playoff loss to the Bengals during the Wild Card Round. Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (+1400), meanwhile, missed the last seven games of last year but has returned to lead a surprising Los Angeles offense that ranks No. 6 overall in offensive EPA per play.
Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp (+1600), Jets running back Breece Hall (+1800) and Steelers pass rusher TJ Watt (+2500) dealt with substantial injuries last season and have come back to effective results.
Meanwhile, Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (+2500) has solidified his role as a starting QB again through his play so far. Mayfield ranks No. 10 among QBs at EPA per play + CPOE so far in 2023.
Typically, according to my colleague Brandon Anderson, quarterbacks win this award, most winners come back from a serious injury or health condition and winners normally win a lot of games and make the playoffs.
These factors favor players like Tagovailoa and Jackson, but the extenuating circumstances surrounding Hamlin's return to play have made him the wire-to-wire favorite through Week 6.
For what it's worth, Anderson sprinkled a half unit on Tagovailoa at a price of +2000 before the season, in addition to a quarter-unit slap on Matthew Stafford and Odell Beckham Jr. (+5000 each).
Hamlin was a -430 preseason favorite, which has lengthened to its current mark of -190.
