D'Andre Swift
Longest Reception Under 11.5 Yards (-110)
Swift has taken over as the Eagles’ lead back and has seen his receiving stats increase in each of his last three games.
However, last week’s game – in which Swift made eight receptions – was a bit fluky considering Kenneth Gainwell saw the majority of passing-down work (third downs and two-minute drill). Therefore, Swift was getting checkdowns on early downs, which usually isn’t sustainable, especially when you have a quarterback like Jalen Hurts, who scrambles at a higher rate than average.
Another thing about these early down targets is that Miami’s defense is going to keep a close eye on the backfield in anticipation of a run from either Swift or Hurts. As a result, Swift isn’t getting too much room to run after the catch; he is averaging just 5.0 yards per catch this season.
Swift has yet to have a reception clear this number – his longest reception has been 11 yards.
This should be a pass-heavy game script from the Eagles as they will need to put up a ton of points in order to keep up with the Dolphins, so I’m not as comfortable fading Swift’s receptions or yardage props. I feel like this market is our best bet.
I’m projecting his median longest reception closer to 9.5, with a 62% chance of staying under 11.5.
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