The sports world may be turning slowly these days, but the NFL offseason is still cooking.
On Monday afternoon, the Houston Texans and Arizona Cardinals agreed to a trade that would send WR DeAndre Hopkins to Arizona in exchange for RB David Johnson (with picks going both ways as well).
The blockbuster deal has, as you'd expect, had an impact on betting odds, and oddsmakers have labeled one side as the pretty clear "winner" of the deal — at least in the short term.
Odds as of Monday at 2:15 p.m. ET and via DraftKings unless otherwise noted. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl, Conference, Division Betting Odds & 2020 Win Total
As of just yesterday, the Cardinals were +6600 to win Super Bowl 55 and +2800 to win the NFC at DraftKings Sportsbook. Their division odds were also up at +1600.
With the acquisition of Hopkins, however, Arizona has shot up to +4000 to take the next Lombardi Trophy, +2000 to win the conference and +750 to win the NFC West.
Here are the implied probability shifts associated with those changes:
- Super Bowl (+6600 to +4000): 1.49% to 2.44%
- Conference (+2800 to +2000): 3.45% to 4.76%
- Division (+1600 to +750): 5.88% to 11.76%
The Cardinals' projected win total has also been bumped from a consensus of 6 to 7.
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Houston Texans Super Bowl, Conference, Division Betting Odds & 2020 Win Total
The Texans' outlook has not seen any such positive change as a result of the move. After being listed at +3300 for Super Bowl 55 on Sunday, they've now fallen back into the same +4000 slot as Arizona.
Their conference odds have taken a similar hit, with a slight drop from +1500 to +1800, and they've fallen from +210 to +225 to win the AFC South — now behind both the Titans (+160) and Colts (+190).
Their implied probability changes are below:
- Super Bowl (+3300 to +4000): 2.94% to 2.44%
- Conference (+1500 to +1800): 6.25% to 5.26%
- Division (+210 to +225): 32.26% to 30.77%
Houston's consensus win total has also seen a half-game drop from 8.5 to 8.
Kyler Murray MVP Odds Impact
The final piece of the betting market puzzle comes by way of Kyler Murray's MVP stock.
The reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year had been at +4000 to win the 2020 MVP at PointsBet, but with DeAndre Hopkins now at his disposal, has shot up to +2500 — a probability boost of 2.44% to 3.85%.
