Deebo Samuel Prop Bet: Rushing Yards Prediction for Super Bowl
WR Deebo Samuel
Player with the First Rush of 10 Yards or More (+1300); 0.25 units
This is one of the many markets that are brand new for the Super Bowl. I’ve found these markets to be the easiest to find value because they aren’t as efficient as the traditional player prop markets that are all very sharp this time of year.
This is something I was able to pull from my Super Bowl prop sim. Here are the average number of 10-plus-yard runs for the top-five contenders in this market:
- Christian McCaffrey: 2.8
- Isiah Pacheco: 1.7
- Patrick Mahomes: 1.2
- Deebo Samuel: 0.8
- Brock Purdy: 0.7
McCaffrey should be the clear favorite, but he’s only expected to have 2-3 10-plus-yard runs, which means it might take him a quarter or two to have his first.
Samuel typically only sees 2-3 rush attempts per game, but he’s explosive when he does get touches — 28% of his rush attempts have gone for at least 10 yards this season. So if he does get a carry before anyone else has a 10-yard run, he will have around a 25% chance to cash this bet.
And considering it’s the Super Bowl, we could see Samuel get something around 4-5 carries. I think giving him a designed run early in the game to try to catch the Chiefs off guard makes sense.
I’m projecting Samuel closer to +790 to have the first 10-plus-yard rush. I like the value we are getting at +1300 and it's well worth a 0.25 unit bet.
Pick: Deebo Samuel — Player with the First Rush of 10 Yards or More (+1300)
Note: You can find this bet under "Rushing Props" at DraftKings. It's labeled "First X Yard Rush — Player with the First Rush of 10 Yards or More."
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