Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds
Seahawks rookie cornerback Devon Witherspoon zoomed up the Defensive Rookie of the Year leaderboard with a dominant performance on Monday Night Football vs. the Giants.
Witherspoon put up two sacks, seven tackles, three QB hits and a pivotal 97-yard pick-six during a 24-3 victory over the Giants.
His odds moved the most out of any rookie on the board on Tuesday morning, going from a +2600, sixth-best favorite to second-best.
Eagles rookie defensive tackle Jalen Carter remains the favorite at -110, unchanged from the week prior.
There are four major points to glean for making picks in this marketplace, courtesy of my colleague Brandon Anderson.
1. Unlike many other awards, favorites tend to win.
2. DROY tends to be an award for pass rushers.
3. Winning doesn't matter much — but an improving defense does.
4. The most predictive factor is draft position.
For what it's worth, based on these principles, Anderson is still bullish on his preseason pick of Will Anderson Jr. — partially because the two players now in front of him aren't pass rushers. If Carter falters down the stretch, Anderson Jr. is next in line, Anderson said. In fact, he's doubling down on the pick at much better value relative to preseason.
It's clear that I underestimated Jalen Carter, already the No. 1 PFF interior defensive lineman just ahead of Aaron Donald. Carter already has 1.5 sacks and 2 forced fumbles too, so he's getting the flash stats I didn't think he could as an interior lineman. He makes sense as a favorite now. b
But Eagles are a bit overrated at 4-0 and the defense in particular will regress some. Meanwhile, the Texans are on the rise and will make even more noise as they get healthy.
Will Anderson has basically been as good as advertised too — maybe better — so this looks like a pretty clear two horse race with no one else really even in the picture.
Both Carter and Anderson checked the boxes before the season as the best fits. Anderson looks like a worthy winner. He might not win if Carter continues to look worthier, but it's a long season and Carter could get hurt, regress, or lose favor among voters — among other off-the-field factors. It's too early to make him an odds-on favorite, and Anderson is the overwhelming pick if Carter stumbles.
+800 is way too long. You could even argue that playing both Carter and Anderson together as a bet against the field makes sense and gives you the Anderson upside plus a Carter cover.
