In the middle of the NFL Week 17 tripleheader on Saturday, the Denver Broncos (9-6) and Cincinnati Bengals (7-8) will play on 4:30 p.m. PST at Paycor Stadium. Kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. EST on NFL Network.
My Broncos vs. Bengals prediction and NFL pick is on the spread in this game. I'm taking the points and betting on the better team in this matchup.
The Bengals are 3.5-point favorites with the consensus game total set at over/under 50 points. On the moneyline, Cincinnati is -180 and +150.
Broncos vs. Bengals Prediction, Picks
Against the Spread
Simply put, I see the Broncos as a better team on paper than the Bengals. So, I'll take the 3.5 points with Denver.
My Pick: Broncos +3.5
Over/Under
I'm projecting this total at 50.5, so I'm mostly in line with the market and will have no play.
- The Broncos have covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 games.
- The Bengals have covered the spread in 3 straight games.
- 51% of bets and 54% of the money are on the Broncos to cover the spread.
- 64% of bets and 75% of the money are on the OVER.
- 83% of bets and 74% of the money on the moneyline are on the Bengals.
Denver Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals Odds
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
| Bengals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -185 |
- Broncos vs. Bengals spread: Bengals -3.5 (-105)
- Broncos vs. Bengals over/under: 50.5 points scored
- Broncos vs. Bengals moneyline: Bengals -185, Broncos +150
- Broncos vs. Bengals pick: Broncos +3.5
MyBroncos vs. Bengals bet is on Denver. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Broncos vs. Bengals Preview: Expert Prediction Against the Spread
On paper, the Broncos are a better team. They’re ninth in DVOA compared to Cincinnati's 17th, and while both teams have been trending upward, Denver is sixth in weighted DVOA and Cincinnati is 13th. That’s still a noteworthy gap no matter how you slice it.
We know Joe Burrow is going to put up points. His stats this season are very impressive and he’d be in the MVP race if the Bengals could win more of the close games they found themselves in.
The key will be to limit the Bengals from putting up 40+ points. The Browns typically have a lot of success against Burrow, and they did pretty well against him last week by playing a lot of man coverage.
The Broncos match up well by playing the most man coverage in the NFL. Burrow is averaging 8.4 yards per attempt against zone and 6.8 against man, and he’s at 0.29 EPA per dropback against zone and 0.09 against man. That’s a pretty significant dropoff.
This is also a good matchup for Bo Nix, who has led Denver to strong performances against bottom-half pass defenses this season. Nix has faced seven such teams this season and is 7-0 straight-up and against the spread with the Broncos averaging 29 points per game. In those games, Nix has 13 touchdowns, two interceptions, and three rushing touchdowns. He’s just 3-4-1 against the spread and is averaging fewer than 200 passing yards per game against above-average pass defenses.
Finally, this is a spot where I’m looking to back Sean Payton, whose teams cover the spread more than 60% of the time as underdogs in his coaching career.
I would still play this at Broncos +3, but I obviously would prefer the one-half point at 3.5. As of 9:55 a.m. ET on Saturday morning, BetMGM and DraftKings are both offering 3.5.
My Pick: Broncos +3.5
Broncos vs. Bengals Weather
