The Denver Broncos (6-5) and Las Vegas Raiders (2-8) will face off in an NFL Week 12 AFC West battle. Kickoff is set for in 4:05 p.m. ET from Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. The game will be broadcast live on CBS and can be streamed on Paramount+.
The Broncos are favored by six points with the game total set at 41 points scored. The Broncos are -260 moneyline favorites to win outright, while the Raiders are +210 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Broncos vs. Raiders predictions and NFL picks.
Broncos vs. Raiders Odds, Pick, Prediction
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -105 | 41 -110o / -110u | -260 |
| Raiders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -115 | 41 -110o / -110u | +210 |
- Broncos vs. Raiders spread: Broncos -6
- Broncos vs. Raiders over/under: 41 points scored
- Broncos vs. Raiders moneyline: Broncos -260, Raiders +210
- Broncos vs. Raiders best bet: Broncos Team Total Over 23.5
MyBroncos vs. Raiders pick is on the Broncos to go over their team total, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Spread
The Broncos are six-point favorites in this game. Betting on them to cover isn't necessarily a bad move, but I'm partial to betting on the Broncos another way.
Moneyline
I have no bet on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm also passing on the game total.
My Pick: Broncos Team Total Over 23.5
Broncos vs. Raiders NFL Week 12 Preview
The Raiders host the Broncos in a rematch of their Week 5 game, which resulted in the Broncos winning 34-18.
In that game, Denver put up an Expected Score of 29.5 points, so even though the 34 actual points was above expectation, even the expected cleared the 23.5 team total comfortably.
The Broncos offense has all the key factors going their way in this one.
Denver averages a schedule-adjusted Expected Score of 23.4 points per game, but the Raiders have a below-average defense, allowing a schedule-adjusted Expected Score of 26.3 PPG. Denver's offense, which has been improving over the course of the season, has also faced a string of defenses that has actually been tougher than the Raiders' defense. The Broncos' last six opponents come in about 7% better than the Raiders defense by weighted DVOA.
That also reflects in my recency-weighted early down success rate (EDSR) numbers, where the Broncos gain a 2.7% EDSR expectation.
In addition, per Fantasy Points data, Bo Nix gets a positive QB matchup, with his production expected at about a 4% increase based off the coverage types the Raiders tend to use.
Finally, there's some under-possession going on in this game since both teams are sub-29 minutes in average time of possession. That means, to fill 60 minutes, both offenses' expected possession time increases, which increases the time Denver is on the field against a bad defense, only increasing the scoring opportunity.
With every single signal pointing to the over for the Broncos, I think instead of picking them to cover, just taking their team total over is the route to go.
My Pick: Broncos Team Total over 23.5 (-115)
Raiders vs Broncos Betting Trends
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