The Denver Broncos (9-5) and Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) will face off tonight on NFL Thursday Night Football at 8:15 p.m. EST from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif. The game will be broadcast exclusively on Amazon Prime Video.
Let's get into my Broncos vs. Chargers predictions and NFL picks.
The Chargers are favored by 2.5 points with the game total set at 41.5 points scored. The Chargers are -143 favorites to win outright, while the Broncos are +120 to pull off the upset.
The Broncos would clinch a playoff spot with a win, while the Chargers can increase their lead for the final playoff spot in the AFC. The Chargers won these teams' first matchup 23-16 back in Week 6 and were up 20-0 at halftime.
Broncos vs. Chargers Expert Predictions
Over/Under Pick
QB Bo Nix is potentially hitting the proverbial "rookie wall," having now played more games than in any season in college. The Broncos are also missing its most explosive running back and Nix himself faces a tough matchup.
Denver puts up just 13.2 points per game on 16.3 expected in five games against top-13 defenses by DVOA compared to 30 points on 27.5 expected per game in the other nine games. This could be a spot that Nix struggles mightily in since the Chargers fall into the former category.
That makes the under the most prudent play.
These two teams combined for 39 points and 41.5 by Expected Scores in Week 6, and that was with Patrick Surtain II getting injured on his only snap of the game. Los Angeles should be in an even worse position than that game.
In the world of NFL totals, 41 is a key number. I'd play the under at 41.5 or higher, but 42 is also an important number so be sure to get the biggest number possible by using our live NFL odds page.
My Pick: Under 41.5
Against the Spread
Given Justin Herbert's ankle injury, a bad matchup for the Chargers, and them missing their most explosive running back, I lean toward the Broncos here since they're the healthier team.
My pick, though, is on the total.
Broncos vs. Chargers Odds, Spread
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -143 |
- Broncos vs. Chargers spread: Chargers -2.5 (-120)
- Broncos vs. Chargers total: Over/Under 41.5 points scored (-110 / -110)
- Broncos vs. Chargers moneyline: Chargers -143, Broncos +120
For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Broncos vs. Chargers Picks, Preview
These AFC West rivals play differing styles of football, especially defensively. Denver uses a man-heavy approach that generates tons of pressure through plenty of blitzing. Los Angeles prefers two-high-safety zone schemes and generates the eighth-lowest pressure rate in the NFL.
These teams are Jekyll and Hyde when it comes to before and after halftime. The Chargers average 12.6 points while allowing just 6.9 points in the first half, but they're outscored 10.8-8.4 in the second half. Denver allows 11.8 first-half points while scoring only 11.1, but it clamps down in the second half by scoring 12.2 points and allowing 6.6.
However, the Broncos are the overall healthier team, missing just two starters, while Los Angeles is banged up on both sides of the ball. In addition, there are a couple of factors that weigh in Denver's favor, namely scoring luck and weighted early-down success rate.
When Los Angeles Has the Ball
The Chargers have faced a league-average schedule over the last seven weeks, but the Broncos have the best defense on early downs in that timeframe, holding the opposition to a 35.2% success rate compared to the 43.6% league average. That's despite Denver facing offenses that generate a 41.8% early-down success rate on average, which means they hold opponents to 6.5% below their normal rate. That could put the Chargers in more third-and-long situations, where Herbert faces a tough matchup against the Broncos' man coverage.
Herbert's production is expected to dip around 4.5%, per Fantasy Points data, against the Broncos' defensive schemes. The Chargers may need to rely on explosive plays, something they've needed to do a lot this season with the sixth-lowest in-possession success rate. Unfortunately for them, the Broncos allow the lowest explosive play rate in the NFL when removing field position in which explosive plays aren't possible (inside the 10 for runs, inside the 20 for passes).
While the Chargers have had a lot of scoring luck in their favor, that may continue here thanks to their explosive offense.
The Chargers usually generate more explosive plays through the air (ninth in the NFL) than in the running game (20th), and RB Gus Edwards has had a lower explosive play rate than the injured J.K. Dobbins.
With Broncos CB Pat Surtain II lurking on the outside, it makes sense that the largest chunk of the Chargers' offense will come through Ladd McConkey, who lines up in the slot around 70% of the time. Instead, expect Quentin Johnston to see the most Surtain.
The other issue for Johnston is the Broncos' second-highest pressure rate. His target share drops from 21% when Herbert has a clean pocket to just 7.5% when he's pressured. McConkey's target share, though, increases from 22% to 33%, so the rookie might be relied on for explosive plays.
Herbert also has a 2.6% scramble rate with a clean pocket compared to just over 10% when pressured. Nursing an ankle injury, I don't trust him to run quite as much. That may open him up to an extra sack or two or an extra couple of throws under pressure.
When Denver Has the Ball
Like Herbert, Nix tends to struggle against the coverage his opponents are expected to use. In this case, it's against the Chargers' two-high-zone looks. Los Angeles has the second-highest rate of Cover 4 and eighth-highest of Cover 6. Nix has around a 60% dip in production against Cover 4.
Fortunately for him, though, the Broncos are slated to fare better than the Chargers on early downs. Los Angeles has allowed almost a 45% early-down success rate over the last seven weeks despite facing opponents that average just 44%. That produces about a 1% positive edge for Denver compared to the -6.5% expected for the Chargers offense.
Denver could struggle without RB Jaleel McLaughlin, who has the highest share of explosive plays in the Broncos backfield.
Given the Chargers' two-high-safety, zone coverage, it'll be tough for the Broncos to generate explosive plays through the air. If they do, it's likely to come through WRs Marvin Mims and Devaughn Vele, who top the team with 2.57 and 1.83 yards per route run against zone schemes, respectively, with Vele being the more possession-oriented receiver.
It's likely Denver will need to grind this game out with its ground game against the Chargers' 16th-ranked run defense by DVOA instead of attacking their seventh-best pass defense.
Broncos vs. Chargers Betting Trends
- 67% of bets and 63% of the money are on the Broncos to cover the spread.
- 83% of bets and 70% of the money are on the OVER.
- 71% of the bets and 71% of the money on the moneyline are on the Chargers.
Broncos Trends
- The Broncos have covered the spread in 5 straight games
- The OVER has hit in 7 of the Broncos’ last 10 games
- The Broncos are 6-1 against the spread on the road this season
Chargers Trends
- The Chargers have covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 straight games
- The OVER has hit in 4 of the Chargers’ last 6 games
- The Broncos are 4-2-1 against the spread at home this season
