The Denver Broncos (9-5) and Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) will open NFL Week 16 on Thursday Night Football from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif., at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video.
The Chargers are 3-point favorites on the spread over the Broncos with (Chargers -3) the game total set at 42 points scored. The Chargers are -160 moneyline favorites and the Broncos are +135 underdogs.
Let’s get into our NFL Sunday Night Football picks and Broncos vs. Chargers predictions.
Broncos vs. Chargers Predictions & Best Bets
- Against the Spread: Broncos +2.5 (+100)
- Over/Under Pick: Over 41.5 (-112)
- Player Props: Gus Edwards Over 34.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Broncos vs. Chargers Parlay for Thursday Night Football
You can parlay our three picks at DraftKings for a +625 SGP on Thursday night.
- Broncos +2.5
- Over 41.5
- Gus Edwards Over 34.5 Rushing Yards
Broncos vs. Chargers Parlay Odds: +625 at DraftKings
Broncos vs. Chargers Odds
- Spread: Chargers -2.5 (-120), Broncos +2.5 (+100)
- Over/Under: 42 (-110o / -110u)
- Moneyline: Chargers -155, Broncos +130
Odds via bet365 as of Wednesday at 7 p.m. ET. Get the latest NFL odds here.
Broncos vs. Chargers Against the Spread Pick
By Billy Ward
The Broncos are currently a game ahead of the Chargers in the AFC West, despite ranking far lower in our Luck Rankings coming into the week.
That means that the actual gap between these two teams' records should be larger than it is, since those rankings consider how teams have done compared to how they should've finished.
While this game is in Los Angeles, that's typically not been a big home-field advantage. Denver has made huge strides since losing to the Chargers at home earlier in the season, as we'd expect with a rookie quarterback.
This line has also moved since opening at +4, with ESPN BET still hanging a +3 (-120) at the time of writing.
If you have the ability to bet there, I'd certainly prefer to get the extra half point up to a key number, even if it means paying an extra 15 cents of juice.
Pick: Broncos +2.5 (+100); Bet to +2.5 (-120)
Broncos vs. Chargers Prediction: Over/Under
The Chargers have allowed 17.6 points per game this season, tied for first in the NFL, and rank as the ninth-best defense in the league according to DVOA. However, in recent weeks their performance has not lived up to the season-long metrics.
Over the last six games, Los Angeles ranks 25th in defensive success rate. Against the Buccaneers just a few days ago, the Chargers surrendered 7.6 yards per play and allowed Tampa to convert on 60% of their third downs.
On a short week, I am skeptical of their chances to turn this ship around.
The Broncos did not play their best game offensively vs. the Colts in Week 15, but this is a team that has scored 28 or more points in six of their last eight games. The two games in which Denver was held in check were against the Ravens and the Chiefs, two of the most stout rush defenses in football. The Chargers' defense is not in that tier, as they rank 16th in DVOA against the run and allow the seventh-most adjusted line yards per rush.
Sean Payton and the Broncos' offense should be able to avoid long down-and-distance situations given that Los Angeles stuffs runs at or behind the line of scrimmage at a 14% rate, the fifth-lowest rate in the NFL.
The Broncos defense look to be one of the top units in football, but it is worth noting their DVOA-adjusted schedule ranking is 30th, meaning they have played one of the three easiest slates of opposing offenses this season. Their defensive metrics continue to depress the total of each of their games, and that is the simple reason why there continues to be value on the over in games involving the Broncos.
Only one game involving Denver has had a total above the key number of 45, yet the over has cashed in eight of their last 10 games. Oddsmakers are in a bind when trying to line Denver games, and we need to continue to take advantage of the value to be had.
Pick: Over 41.5 (-110); Bet to 46.5 (-105 or better)
Broncos vs. Chargers Player Prop Pick
Since J.K. Dobbins has been out, Gus Edwards hasn't been great, but he's been getting volume when the game is close.
The Chargers' last three games have been weird. They were blown out last week against the Buccaneers, got out to a big lead early against the Chiefs, and barely ran any plays against the Falcons. With that, we haven't seen much of a workload from Edwards.
This is a tough matchup against the Broncos' run defense, but the volume should be there for Edwards. The rushing attempts line at most books is sitting at 9.5 with heavy juice on the over. Although Edwards hasn't been efficient, he's better than the numbers have shown so far.
The Chargers are three-point favorites, so I'm expecting 10-12 attempts for Edwards, which makes this line far too low.
Pick: Gus Edwards Over 34.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
