The public is all-in on Derrick Henry tonight for Thursday Night Football's Titans vs. Packers.
That's on account of the Packers' third-worst rush defense, according to DVOA. Already, Henry's rushing yard prop has ballooned from its open at 98 to its current mark of 105.5.
Lo and behold, that's the third-most popular prop tonight. And yes, our data analytics gurus think there's still value there.
View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!
Titans vs. Packers Most Popular NFL Player Prop Bets
- Derrick Henry to score the first touchdown of the game (+400)
- Derrick Henry to score a touchdown anytime (-200)
- Derrick Henry to record over 105.5 rushing yards (-115)
*Odds and data are according to BetMGM as of Thursday afternoon.
Our premier data analytics guru Nick Giffen assessed the value on all these props. And he says fade the touchdown props, but go ahead and roll with Henry on his rushing yard line even with the negative closing line value.
Henry's fair value line to score the first touchdown of the game is around +455. At BetMGM's price of +400, you're losing about 2% of value by riding this line.
Henry's anytime TD line should be priced closer to -146. MGM's price of -200 means this bet loses 7.3% in value from what's fair.
That said, if you're really keen on this line, DraftKings is pricing it at -150. Keep in mind that even the line is still negative EV.
It's Henry's rushing yard prop that has the most +EV. If you had gotten in at 98 yards — when it opened — you'd be looking amazing right now.
Even at its current market-best price of o104.5 at BetRivers, it's decent value. He's projected to rush for about 107 yards tonight, Giffen said.
