Ravens vs. Browns Odds
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -110 | 39.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
| Browns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -110 | 39.5 -110o / -110u | -120 |
An injury update on Friday listed Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson as questionable for Sunday's game between the Browns and Ravens with a shoulder injury that has kept him limited in practice this week.
The news sent the total downward precipitously. Having previously settled at roughly 41, the line is a consensus 39.5 now.
This is, after all, a historically good Browns defense, one that ranks No. 1 in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) and EPA per play (expected points added per play). In fact, according to DVOA, this is one of the best defenses through three weeks in NFL history.
And this unit is miles above every other team in the NFL at EPA/play. While the Browns defense has registered roughly -0.40 points taken away per play, the next best defense — the Bills — sit at -0.27.
The Browns defense leads the NFL is most demonstrable defensive categories, including:
- Yards allowed
- Pressure rate
- First downs allowed
- Third-down conversion rate
- Opponent quarterback rating
Meanwhile, the Ravens' defense is no joke either, ranking No. 6 in EPA/play and No. 5 in DVOA.
So, the total dipping below the key numbers of 40 and 41 completely jibes with one side's starting quarterbacks questionable.
The Browns' spread falling also tracks. While Watson has performed poorly so far this season — he ranks just No. 20 out of all quarterbacks in EPA/play + completion percentage above expected — his backup Dorian Thompson-Robinson has absolutely no track record in the NFL and is facing off against one of the top defenses in the NFL.
Though Thompson-Robinson played admirably during the preseason, he's going to need his league-best defense and rushing attack to step it up in order to get by a scary Baltimore front seven.
Our colleague Sean Koerner, for instance, rates Thompson-Robinson as three or three-and-a-half points worse than Watson on the spread. Considering those factors, this line could move from its previous consensus of Browns -1.5 to roughly Ravens -1.5 by game time.
As it stands with Watson's status still in the air, the Browns have moved just a half point to -1 favorites as of Friday afternoon.
