Lions vs Ravens Odds
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 43 -110o / -110u | +135 |
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 43 -110o / -110u | -155 |
Lions vs. Ravens odds have not moved much this week, with Baltimore consistently laying a field goal to a 5-1 Detroit team.
One of the main things to watch in this game is whether Jared Goff can put to bed the narrative of his outdoor struggles. He has covered seven straight against teams with a winning record as the Lions continue to be the public’s betting darlings of the NFL.
All good things eventually come to an end, though. Let's make our Lions vs. Ravens pick.
Lions vs. Ravens
Matchup Analysis
First, let’s address the weather. There should be sustained winds of 10+ mph, with gusts upwards of 20+ mph. I am not going to let it affect my handicap too much when it comes to the side of this game. That's because the foundation of both offenses are their ground attacks.
The Ravens and Lions are fourth and seventh, respectively, in rush offense DVOA. However, the Lions have been in the lead 60% of the time when their offense is on the field — fourth highest in the league. Their spot as the fourth-best passing offense, according to DVOA, could be tested if they find themselves playing from behind.
And that could be the case because the Ravens' rush defense has been incredibly stout through six weeks. They have stuffed 50.4% of runs to fewer than 4 yards on first down and fewer than three yards on all other downs. In total, their rush defense success rate sits at 70.4%, which is fourth in the NFL.
More specifically in this matchup, the Ravens are best at limiting what the Lions are most successful at with the use of their man-blocking running concepts. The Lions use both zone and man schemes but average greater than a half-yard more per carry when using the latter.
The Ravens' rush defense has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards to man-blocking schemes this season and teams have averaged a measly 3.03 yards per carry against them when using such concepts, according to FantasyPoints data.
Bet Detroit vs. Baltimore at FanDuel
Lions running back David Montgomery (ribs) has been ruled out. At 224 pounds, he is a much more physical runner than rookie Jahmyr Gibbs. It won’t just be a hit to the running game either, as Montgomery is much better in pass protection, as well.
Montgomery carries a 68.1 pass-blocking grade, per Pro Football Focus, good for 17th in the league. Gibbs has a 15.6 rating, which is last for all qualifying running backs. This is significant because 47.1% of all deep throws from Goff have come off play-action. If the Lions struggles to run the ball and can't hold up in pass protection, the explosive element of their offense will suffer.
The Ravens offense ranks a middling 15th in yards per play. This is misleading for a couple of reasons. First, their offensive DVOA schedule rank has been the sixth hardest. They have scored 22 or more points in every game this season except for one, and that happened to be the one game their pass-catchers set a league-wide, single-game high for drops.
The new offensive system under Todd Monken has taken some time to click, but now that it has, I believe their games against the Browns and Titans are more indicative of what is to come.
Many consider the Cleveland defense to be the strongest unit in the league yet the Ravens scored 28 points against it three weeks ago, with Lamar Jackson boasting a 78.9% completion rate and averaging 8.7 yards per attempt. Against the Titans last Sunday in London, the Ravens converted 50% of their third downs and Jackson completed 70% of his passes.
Lions vs. Ravens
Betting Picks & Predictions
I will give the Lions' rush defense its due, so this game could come down to pass rush. The Ravens' adjusted sack rate, according to FTN, is 8.8% (ninth in the league). The Lions' adjusted sack rate (5%) and pass-rush win rate (30%) rank 29th and 27th, respectively.
The Ravens are one of the few teams equipped to put Goff and company behind the sticks. I will side with the defense that can get to the quarterback in obvious passing situations. I happen to also be betting on the quarterback who can make an extra play or two with his legs when the game is on the line.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
