Since the dawn of gambling, the idea of turning a tiny amount of money into a lot has been the dream. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., they all offer the same appeal.
Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can add same-game parlays to that list. So, we have Lions vs. Packers parlay picks tonight.
Lions vs. Packers Parlay
- Lions -3 (-118)
- Jared Goff Under 33.5 Pass Attempts (-120)
- Jordan Love Over 5.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Full Lions vs. Packers Parlay Odds: +525 (+788 Boosted) | $10 Bet Wins $52.50
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that. Fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate given the tangled web of correlation between each leg. However, parlays are fun. And just like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
Of course, you could make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 Challenge," which hit in Week 7 and again last week, we'll be operating with a similar goal.
Of course, with primetime games on multiple days every week, we'll need a winner on each day of the week, but we'll also have more chances to bring it home. Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for my Thursday Night Football parlay for Week 14 on DraftKings — who are offering a 50% profit boost for Thursday Night SGPs.
Lions -3.0 (-118)
Detroit has moved to -3.5 at most sportsbooks, but DraftKings is hanging onto -3 as of Wednesday night. That's fairly generous considering this game is in Detroit, and the Lions beat the Packers by 10 points at Lambeau earlier in the season.
Sure, in the meantime Detroit has definitely been hit with more injuries than Green Bay. The defense in particular could field a full starting 11 made up exclusively of players on the injured reserve.
However, that hasn't really slowed down the Lions. They've won 10 straight games, are 9-3 against the spread, and have won by less than three just once.
By getting this line at 3.0 instead of 3.5, we're keeping the parlay alive (at reduced odds) if Detroit wins by exactly a field goal. That's worth it for me, and I'd consider paying up for an alternate spread if need be — especially since that's balanced out by the profit boost.
Jared Goff Under 33.5 Pass Attempts (-120)
This is a big number for Jared Goff, who's cleared the line just three times in 12 games this season. Sure, two of those were the last two Lions games, but it's worth zooming out a bit here.
Those games came against two teams that play at the second and seventh fastest pace of play in the NFL, the Colts and Bears. This week, they're taking on a Packers team that ranks 28th in pace of play.
Assuming Detroit doesn't fall way behind here, this one should be a fairly easy cover. It's the top projected prop in our NFL Props Tool for this game and a worthy inclusion in the parlay.
Jordan Love Over 5.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
I like targeting quarterback rushing props against the Lions because of their man/zone splits on defense.
It's easier for quarterbacks to run the ball against man coverage since the defenders will have their backs turned to the passer. Detroit plays man at the highest rate in the league and allowed both Caleb Williams and Anthony Richardson to clear their rushing props the last two weeks.
Jordan Love is not the runner that either Williams or Richardson is, but he's averaging roughly five yards per game. That's right in line with this prop, but we can reasonably boost it for the matchup.
Additionally, it works out nicely with the Lions spread. If the Lions cover -3, there's little risk of Love going back under this prop by kneeling the ball down at the end of the game. It's the second highest-projecting prop in our Props tool.
Full Lions vs. Packers Parlay Odds: +525 (+788 Boosted) | $10 Bet Wins $52.50
