The Detroit Lions (9-1) and Indianapolis Colts (5-6) face off in NFL Week 12 at 1 p.m. ET from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The game will be broadcast live on FOX and can also be streamed on YouTube TV.
The Lions are favored by 7.5 points over the Colts (Lions -7.5) with the game total set at over/under 50 points scored. The Lions are -400 favorites to win outright, while the Colts are +310 to pull off the upset.
The Lions won 52-6 over the Jaguars last week for their 8th straight win. Jared Goff has 20 touchdowns this season, and Detroit has gotten 18 combined rushing touchdowns from Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. The Colts won 28-27 last week and snapped a 3-game losing streak. Anthony Richardson was excellent with 272 passing yards and 3 touchdowns (2 rushing) in his return.
Let's get into my Lions vs. Colts predictions and NFL picks.
Lions vs. Colts Prediction
Spread
I project this spread a little south of Lions -6, so I simply can't get to this number.
Detroit is flying high after a blowout win over one of the worst teams in the NFL and faces a Colts team that's playing well and needs to win to keep its playoff hopes alive.
I'll take the points and fade the Lions.
Moneyline
I'm happy to take the points with the Colts and I am not going to bet their moneyline.
Over/Under
I project this total at 51 points, so I'm pretty close to being in line with the market and have no pick.
My Pick: Colts +7.5 (-115)
Lions vs. Colts Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 50 -110o / -110u | -400 |
| Colts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 50 -110o / -110u | +310 |
- Lions vs. Colts spread: Lions -7.5 (-105)
- Lions vs. Colts over/under: 50 points scored
- Lions vs. Colts moneyline: Lions -400, Colts +310
- Lions vs. Colts best bet: Colts +7.5 (-115)
MyLions vs. Colts pick is on Indianapolis. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Lions vs. Colts NFL Week 12 Preview
I beat Dan Campbell a couple of weeks ago when I took the points with the Texans. Still, you have to be very, very careful when you fade the Lions given how prolific Campbell’s Lions have been against the spread (ATS) since he took over.
This spread, though, is ridiculous.
I can’t get to this number. I have the spread at about Lions -5.8.
The Lions are dominant and really good — I'm not denying that. Laying 7.5 points on the road against a team that is not bad, I simply can’t get there.
Now, why is this line so high? It’s because the Lions won 52-6 last week.
That was against a Jaguars team that is going nowhere fast with a lame duck head coach and Mac Jones under center. Defensively, Jacksonville played right into Detroit’s hands.
This is also the time to fade a team coming off a win like that. Favorites of four or more points coming off a win of 35 or more points cover at a 38% clip the following week.
Since 2003, we’ve only had 40 November games in which a team is averaging more than 33 points per game with a 90% win percentage. What does that mean? Those juggernauts have only covered 12 times.
This is also a matchup that could give Jared Goff problems. He has been nearly flawless this season against man coverage with nine touchdowns, no interceptions and a 144 passer rating.
Against zone, he’s a pedestrian-level quarterback. Goff has seven touchdowns, nine interceptions and a passer rating of 89.
The Colts play more zone than any team in the NFL, and that’s how you give yourself the best chance to beat the Lions.
As for Anthony Richardson, he’s 6-1 ATS this season and 6-2 as an underdog. All he does is cover the spread.
This is also a huge game for the Colts, who are fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive.
For the Lions, this could be a trap spot going on the road and facing a team that needs the win more than they do. Detroit just put up 52 points and has a quick turnaround next week for a divisional matchup on Thanksgiving. I could see the Lions potentially being flat here.
My Pick: Colts +7.5 (-115)
Colts vs Lions Betting Trends
NFL Weather
