DeVonta Smith Player Props
DeVonta Smith is the Philadelphia Eagles’ hottest receiver heading into Super Bowl 57 against the Kansas City Chiefs.
That makes DeVonta Smith player props a hot market for Eagles vs. Chiefs.
As Brandon Anderson deftly pointed out when breaking down potential MVP candidates, the second-year wideout averaged 6.4 receptions for 92.6 yards per game with five total touchdowns in the seven games prior to the NFC Championship Game. There’s every reason to believe he would have put up similar numbers in that game as well if the Eagles didn’t go run-heavy in the second half after taking a commanding lead.
So, we’re clearly backing Smith in what may be a high-scoring affair against the Kansas City Chiefs, right?
Not necessarily.
A few months ago, I’d have said this is a no-brainer. However, the Chiefs’ pass defense is surging at the perfect time. There’s a plethora of Smith props to choose from, so let’s take a closer look at where we might find a betting edge in either backing or fading the Eagles’ electric wideout.
Kansas City possessed a middling defense for most of the season, especially against the pass. However, championship quality teams kick things up a notch when it matters most, and that’s exactly what the Chiefs have done.
After posting a pass DVOA of 6.5%, which ranked 20th in the league, they’ve been lights out in the playoffs with a DVOA of -22.1%. That’s a significant upgrade and would have paced the NFL by a significant margin during the regular season.
Of course, it’s such a small sample size that it should be taken with fistfuls of salt. Still, that improvement can’t be ignored, especially since it includes performances against a Jacksonville Jaguars team that featured the sixth-best pass DVOA in the regular season and a Cincinnati Bengals team that ranked seventh.
However, if any player is situated to do major damage through the air against the Chiefs, it’s the Eagles speedster. Kansas City has struggled against slot receivers this year, and while the majority of Smith’s snaps during the regular season came on the boundary (57.4%), he also lined up in the slot a decent number of times (29.6%).
Despite that sizable disparity, Smith had virtually the same amount of receptions in each spot. He was actually more effective in the slot, catching 47 passes for 628 yards and four touchdowns while snaring 48 receptions for 568 yards and three scores when lined up outside. Head coach Nick Sirianni’s sharp as a whip, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see Smith in the slot even more than usual.
Meanwhile, for what it’s worth, Smith has a penchant for shining on the brightest stage. He absolutely balled out with Alabama in the 2021 College Football Playoff National Championship Game. He hauled in 12 catches on 14 targets for 215 yards and three touchdowns in the first half to lift his team to a 52-24 win over Ohio State. There’s no doubt dominating a college championship game is a far cry from the Super Bowl, but it’s still worth noting.
Betting Picks
The Chiefs may be much improved against the pass, but I still like Smith’s chances of feasting come Sunday, which is why there are several props I’m highly considering backing.
A longest reception of 23.5 and the over on 61.5 receiving yards are particularly tempting. However, the prop I’m most bullish on is Smith going over the 4.5 catches most books are offering.
Smith has hauled in at least five passes in 14 of 19 games this season, including 10 of the team’s 13 games since their Week 7 bye. Additionally, despite Smith's electric speed, Jalen Hurts surprisingly prefers targeting him on underneath routes as Smith’s average depth of target is a meager 9.9 yards. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have surrendered the fifth-most receptions on passes thrown under 10 yards, which is why Smith is particularly well-suited to have a busy day against Kansas City.
There’s significant juice here, which is why, if you’re feeling particularly frisky, you may want to take this up to 5.5 catches. Smith has caught at least six passes in nine games this season, and considering this may be a high-flying affair, I wouldn’t be shocked if he sees double-digit targets.
Pick: Over 4.5 Receptions | Bet to 5.5 |
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