After all the polling and handwringing this election cycle, is it possible a Hail Mary just decided the presidential election?
Vice President Kamala Harris certainly hopes so — based on the "Washington NFL Rule," formerly known as the "Redskins Rule." According to the trend/rule, the incumbent party retains the White House whenever the Commanders win their last home game before a presidential election. The result has held true in 19 of the past 21 elections since the franchise relocated to Washington, hitting at a 90.5% clip.
The theory came to the forefront heading into the 2000 presidential election, when Steve Hirdt of the Elias Sports Bureau noticed the correlation. The rule held true for every election from 1940 (the first presidential election with a pro football team in Washington, D.C.) to 2000, as the incumbent party remained in power after a Washington home win while the opposition party won the presidency following a loss.
So, based on that, since President Joe Biden won the popular vote and the election in 2020, the Commanders’ win over the Chicago Bears portends Harris will defeat former President Donald Trump. That’s certainly music to the Democrats’ ears, as Trump holds a significant lead in betting odds as Election Day approaches. He has a 61.74% chance to take back the White House compared to Harris’s 38.26%.
The lone exceptions to the rule have been in 2012, when it predicted a Mitt Romney victory over Barack Obama, and in 2016, when the rule predicted Hillary Clinton would defeat Trump.
The Commanders are on the road to take on the Giants in Week 9, with the presidential election the following Tuesday on November 5.
Republicans were sitting pretty when Roschon Johnson plunged into the end zone on a one-yard touchdown run with 23 seconds to go. It marked Chicago’s first lead of the game and gave the Bears approximately a 97% chance of winning according to ESPN Analytics.
However, it left just enough time for Offensive Rookie of the Year frontrunner Jayden Daniels to work his magic. Daniels connected on an 11-yard strike to Zach Ertz and a 13-yard completion to Terry McLaurin to put Washington into Hail Mary range with six seconds to go. He took the snap and ran around the backfield for 12 seconds before launching a prayer into the end zone. A mass of players converged on the ball just shy of the goal line, deflecting it in the air into the waiting arms of Noah Brown.
The Hail Mary sent the 64,704 fans at Northwest Stadium into a frenzy. Now, 345 million Americans wait with bated breath to see if the Washington NFL Rule holds true yet again.
