Chris Raybon reveals his top five NFL props for the Divisional Round of the 2022 NFL playoffs on PrizePicks, featuring Aaron Rodgers and Elijah Mitchell overs.
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NFL Playoff Props
Aaron Rodgers Over 255.5 Passing Yards
The 49ers defense ranks second in Football Outsiders’ DVOA against the run, but just 16th against the pass, which will create a clear pass funnel on Saturday.
Rodgers threw for 261 yards in the Packers’ 30-28 win over San Francisco in Week 3 and has averaged 283.5 passing yards in his 20 playoff starts. This season, Rodgers threw for 261+ yards in nine of 15 full games.
I’d play this to 260.5.
Elijah Mitchell Over 71.5 Rushing Yards
The Packers defense ranks 27th against the run but 15th against the pass, which will create a run funnel for the 49ers. That’s good news for Mitchell, who has run for 85+ yards in eight of 12 games this season. Despite being a road dog, San Francisco’s game plan will still be run-heavy in cold weather with a banged-up Jimmy Garoppolo.
I’d play this to 79.5.
AJ Dillon under 42.5 Rushing Yards
The 49ers have the second-ranked run defense by DVOA, making this a tough matchup for Dillon. Plus, San Francisco just held Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard to a combined 16 carried for 45 yards.
Green Bay has been saving Aaron Jones for the playoffs and it doesn’t make sense to slam Dillon between the tackles against a top run D here. I’d play this to 40.5.
George Kittle over 45.5 Receiving Yards
Kittle has hit this over in just seven of 14 games where Jimmy Garoppolo was the starter, but he has averaged 64.2 receiving yards a game in those matchups this season, including playoffs. The Packers defense ranks 28th in DVOA against tight ends, but seventh against WR1s, seventh against WR2s, and third against non-WR1/2s. Green Bay is also expected to get top CB Jaire Alexander back on Saturday.
Kittle is coming off a down game, but the Packers play zone 1.4 times more than the Cowboys, and Kittle’s 2.67 Yards Per Route Run (YPRR) against zone led all TEs during the regular season. Including the postseason, Kittle has 2.54 YPRR vs. zone and 1.86 YPRR vs. man, a difference of 0.68 YPRR.
I’d play this to 50.5.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine Under 26.5 Receiving Yards
Westbrook-Ikhine has been held to 25 or fewer receiving yards in eight of 16 games this season. With Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones healthy and the Titans favored, it’s unlikely Tennessee runs much 3WR personnel.
The Bengals rank 12th in DVOA against non-WR1/2s, but 24th against tight ends, which also increases the chance of the Titans using heavy personnel. On top of that, Westbrook-Ikhine should see the most of slot CB Mike Hilton, who ranks 20th in PFF coverage grade out of 121 qualified CBs.
I’d play this to 25.5.
