We've got another barn burner of a Thursday Night Football game on Amazon Prime tonight. There are injuries to both teams on both sides of the field. The Bengals and Dolphins are coming off tough wins and now have to play on a short week.
That makes me believe the passing attacks will falter. I think the quarterbacks will target shorter passes instead of the big wide receivers downfield.
If that’s the case, we can make some money with our prediction on PrizePicks, which allows you to parlay NFL player props together and wager real money on them in 27 states.
Let’s dive into my two favorite PrizePicks plays for Thursday Night Football.
Joe Mixon
Over 3 Receptions
I adore this play for four reasons.
First, the Bengals have a horrid offensive line. Cincinnati has the fourth-highest adjusted sack rate in the NFL and Joe Burrow has been sacked the most times. Burrow is pressured on almost every play, and it often requires him to hit his hot read out of the backfield.
Second, Joe Mixon is the hot read. And he’s been targeted a ton.
Five RB's are seeing 6+ targets per game:
-Austin Ekeler (7.3)
-Breece Hall (7)
-Javonte Williams (7)
-Joe Mixon (6.6)
-JD McKissic (6.3)— Alex Caruso (@AlexCaruso) September 28, 2022
Mixon has managed at least three receptions in all three of his games this season, but he’s been targeted 20 times in the process. He’s the second-highest pass catcher in the Bengals' offense behind Ja’Marr Chase.
Third, the Miami defense has shown vulnerability against pass-catching backs. The Dolphins are 27th in Pass Defense DVOA vs. running backs and have allowed a whopping 9.7 pass attempts per game to RBs.
Finally, the projection systems love him. The Action Network’s Player Props Tool projects Mixon for 3.6 receptions on Thursday Night while Stokastic’s Player Props Tool has him at 3.2.
Chase Edmonds
Over 13.5 Receiving Yards
We’re still not sure as of this writing if Tua Tagovailoa is going to play. He looked near-concussed last week against Buffalo and is currently questionable, according to reports.
If Tagovailoa doesn’t play, Chase Edmonds will see a ton of targets.
But if Tagovailoa does play, I still think Edmonds sees plenty of targets.
Edmonds only hit this mark in Week 1 before falling well short in Weeks 2 and 3. However, this is a great matchup for him.
Cincinnati allowed Tony Pollard to record 50 receiving yards in Week 2 and then allowed Breece Hall to pick up 53 in Week 3. The Bengals are allowing 8.3 pass attempts per game to running backs. The Bengals actually rank top-10 in Pass DVOA vs. running backs, likely meaning Zac Taylor is fine to allow passing yards out of the backfield if the overall approach is effective.
Okay Breece Hall I see you 👀 #FantasyFootballpic.twitter.com/7fLZayQ2N7
— Jeremy (@PopesFFH) September 29, 2022
Plus, the defensive backs might be too concerned with the electric combination of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle (if he plays) to pay attention to the underneath routes. Tagovailoa will happily take those underneath routes, while backup Teddy Bridgewater might not be able to hit the deep shots.
The projections also love Edmonds today:
- The Action Network’s Player Props Tool: 15.4 Recieving Yards
- Stokastic’s Player Props Tool: 19.1 Recieving Yards
- Football Outsiders Weekly Fantasy Projections: 18.2 Recieving Yards
This is a PrizePicks line worth pouncing on.
