The undefeated Miami Dolphins head to Cincinnati on a short week to take on the Bengals, who are fresh off their first win of the season. Miami took down the Super Bowl favorite Buffalo Bills and is looking to continue its AFC dominance on Thursday night.
Primetime unders have reigned supreme, but is this the perfect spot to fade the trend and back a high-scoring game between two efficient offenses? Can Joe Burrow and the Bengals continue to right the ship at home?
I address those questions and more in Week 4’s edition of the Thursday Night Football same game parlay:
Bengals Moneyline (-190)
The Bengals' offense took a huge step forward against the New YorkJets last week and is starting to play faster and sharper. After an easy, blowout victory, the Bengals face the Dolphins on a short week and have a clear advantage.
Aside from being at home, Miami is fresh off a taxing bout in the Florida heat. It was obvious that the offenses slowed in the second half and with Tua Tagovailoa nursing both a back and ankle injury, I love Cincinnati in this spot.
This is a perfect buy low, sell high spot. The Dolphins are undefeated and now face a struggling — in the public’s eye, that is — Bengals squad. But Xavien Howard is nursing a groin injury and this Miami secondary will be overmatched by the trio of Cincinnati receivers.
The Bengals also rank top five in pass rush and coverage, per PFF, and are seventh in rush defense. This is a slept-on defense that should continue to roll in Thursday night’s matchup.
Tyreek Hill
Over 70+ Receiving Yards (-158)
Following the narrative that the Dolphins will lose on Thursday, the offense will be forced into a negative game script. That benefits Tyreek Hill, who has been eyeing his matchup with Eli Apple and the Bengals all week.
Even with attention being put on Hill, I think his usage will see a huge uptick from last week. After racking up 184 yards over the first two weeks, Hill had just 33 yards on two receptions against the Bills. But, as I mentioned before, that was in the Miami heat and the offense was hardly on the field.
Buffalo had 63 pass attempts and 23 rushes compared to Miami’s 20 and 17, respectively. The Dolphins took away the home run play with Stefon Diggs over the top and forced Josh Allen to dink and dunk around the field, which led to few offensive possessions.
This week, I think the Bengals will move the ball with ease. Joe Mixon and Cincinnati’s trio of wide receivers should carve up the Miami defense. That will lead to more offensive plays and pass attempts, which should benefit Hill.
In the first two weeks, Hill was targeted 25 times. I’d expect another double-digit output on Thursday, giving Hill a good shot at eclipsing his over prop. Of course, he’s also a deep threat and could hit this number in one play.
Over 47.5 (-114)
This builds off my reasoning on the Cincinnati moneyline play. I think this is the perfect game for the Bengals' offense to erupt and go for four-plus touchdowns on their own. The Bengals have the perfect matchup on Thursday night, going against a defense that struggles in pass defense.
It’s no secret that primetime unders have been hitting over the past few weeks, but this is the perfect opportunity to fade the early season trend.
The Dolphins' offense averages nearly 28 points per game and has two of the most explosive receivers in Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Tagovailoa has taken a huge step in the opening weeks of the season and I’d expect Miami to eclipse the 20-point mark themselves, especially given the up-tempo play in garbage time.
This comes down to finishing drives and I trust both teams to get the job done on Thursday night. These are two of the most high-powered offenses in football and both are capable of hitting a big play at any time. Fade the unders trend and expect offensive fireworks in Cincinnati.
Joe Mixon
Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
While Mixon has struggled establishing the run, he’s proven to be a versatile running back thanks to his pass-catching abilities.
Through three weeks, Mixon has 13 receptions for 103 yards. He’s eclipsed this number twice and should have no issues against a Dolphins defense that just surrendered 78 yards on nine receptions to Devin Singletary.
We could see a similar style defensively from the Dolphins on Thursday, where they try to bracket Ja’Marr Chase and force Burrow to look for his secondary reads.
The Bengals have ranked in the bottom 10 in pass blocking, per PFF, thus far and right tackle La’el Collins is questionable with an injury. That could lead to even more check-downs for Mixon, who has been targeted 20 times through three games.
This number is just 20.5 right now and Mixon could easily eclipse this number in one catch, though I expect closer to three or four receptions for the 26-year-old. I think we see a bounce-back game from Chase, but I prefer backing Mixon, who will take advantage of the defensive attention paid to Chase, Tee Higgins and co.
Hayden Hurst
Anytime Touchdown (+260)
This is the home run play to bring the same game parlay full circle. Yes, it’s easy to go with Chase or Higgins, the top two receivers in this offense, or Mixon, who’s odds are well into the minus.
But I’m going with Hurst, the big tight end. Hurst was limited entering last week against the Jets, but was a full participant in Tuesday’s practice and should play his full workload on Thursday.
In the first two weeks of the year, Hurst played the third-most snaps and was targeted 7.5 times per game. He’s tied for the second-most targets of all Bengals receivers in the end zone, and in a game where I’m expecting plenty of offense, should have multiple opportunities to score his first touchdown as a Bengal.
The attention in the red zone will be on Chase, which opens plenty of opportunities for other receivers. The odds are so short on Mixon, Chase and Higgins that I love taking a stab at Hurst to round out this parlay.
He’s already proven to be a red zone target for Burrow and should have a couple of passes thrown his way against a Dolphins defense that has struggled against tight ends.
The Parlay (+2078)
- Cincinnati Bengals ML (-198)
- Tyreek Hill 70+ Receiving Yards (-158)
- Over 47.5 (-114)
- Joe Mixon o20.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
- Hayden Hurst Anytime TD (+260)
