With news that Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will not return vs. the Bills from a series of concussions he suffered earlier this year, Buffalo's spread has jumped to historic levels.
FanDuel prices the Bills as -13.5 favorites now on the spread. If that line closes higher than Bills -11.5, it would be the largest Wild Card Round spread in history.
The Wild Card Round has existed in different iterations since 1990.
On the moneyline, the Bills are now roughly -750 to move on to the divisional round to host either the Bengals, Jaguars, Chargers or Ravens two Sundays from now.
All indications point toward a rematch with the Bengals — albeit, this time under the squally conditions in Western New York. Cincinnati is -7.5 (-340 moneyline) at FanDuel to beat the Ravens to qualify for a prospective trip to Buffalo.
The best price on the Bills ML vs. the Dolphins as of publish is at BetRivers at -670. For the Bills spread, it's also at BetRivers at -12.5 (-112).
Bills at -12 or above would eclipse the wild-card record of Chiefs -11.5, which was set last season against the Steelers, who trotted out a decrepit Ben Roethlisberger and his middling defense in a 42-21 dud against Kansas City.
Skylar Thompson will take the reins as Miami's starting quarterback. In the weeks in which Thompson played the majority of snaps, the Dolphins are No. 21 in pass offense and No. 16 in total offense.
The rookie out of Kansas State took over for Teddy Bridgewater against the Jets in Week 5 in a 40-17 loss. Then came a start against the Vikings in another L. Thompson pulled off an 11-6 win over the Jets last week to qualify for this date with Buffalo.
For reference, the Miami offense had been ranked No. 3 in the NFL with Tagovailoa on the field.
Now, the Bills' top-rated defense faces a rookie quarterback that's looked hapless against elite pass rushing teams.
And in general, first-time starting quarterbacks perform horribly in the postseason.
Rookie quarterbacks are 10-17 SU in the playoffs, including 3-10 SU over the last decade. These statistics are courtesy of our director of research Evan Abrams.
Furthermore, quarterbacks making their first postseason start have gone 18-36 (33%) and 17-36-1 against the spread (31%) since 2002.
