After two close regular season games, the oddsmakers are saying this will be a one-sided affair. Changing the atmosphere of this game has been each team’s recent performance. The Bills are on a seven-game winning streak and their offense has found its rhythm, scoring at least 30 points in each of the past three weeks.
On the other hand, the Dolphins have been reeling. They have lost five of their past six with their only win coming against the Jets in Week 18. Even that came against a third-string quarterback. Stumbling into the playoffs and being forced to start a third-string quarterback is far from ideal for a team that was 8-3.
The story of this game is simple. The Bills have caught fire at the right time and the Dolphins have gone ice cold.
My approach to same game parlays is to build a game script, then follow the script to ensure our bets work together. In this case, I am going to be siding with oddsmakers and trusting Buffalo to make quick work of Miami.
Buffalo Bills
1st Half Spread -7.5 (-110)
Buffalo is going to come out swinging. On the year, the Bills' average 1st half point differential is 5.7, third best in the league. With Miami looking disappointing, team morale will be fragile. Buffalo will do everything it can to break their spirit early by jumping out to a big lead.
Not only will this break the Dolphins' spirits, it will also play to Buffalo’s best chances of winning. A big lead will force the ball into Skylar Thompson’s hands. For a seventh-round rookie, Thompson has not played poorly. However, putting him in a shootout against Josh Allen would be the worst-case scenario.
The only problem with Buffalo has been its carelessness with the ball, as the Bills rank 31st in turnovers per game. Fortunately, the Dolphins have forced the third-fewest turnovers.
Josh Allen
Over 1.5 Pass TDs (-174)
Speaking of Josh Allen, he stepped his game up to the highest possible level last year in the playoffs. In his two playoff games last year, Allen had a near-perfect quarterback rating of 149.0, nine passing touchdowns to zero interceptions and averaged 10.3 yards per attempt.
The first of those dominant performances came against a top-five defense and a division rival in the Patriots. It doesn’t matter how talented the defense is or if the defense is familiar with his game. When Allen is dialed in, he is unstoppable. What better motivation than to beat a division opponent in the playoffs as you look to prove last year wasn't a fluke?
Aside from Allen’s motivation and talent, his opponent has not guarded the pass well. Miami is 26th in passing touchdowns allowed and 27th in passing yards allowed. You can see why I think this matchup is a recipe for disaster.
James Cook
50+ Rushing Yards (+174)
This bet comes almost entirely from the idea that Buffalo will lead and look to grind the clock in the second half. When Buffalo is trailing or tied, it's the Devin Singletary show as he gets 74% of the split between him and Cook.
However, when Buffalo is leading, that split becomes 52% Singletary and 48% Cook. Cook has shown he deserves opportunities — he averages 5.7 yards per carry compared to Singletary’s 4.6.
With his burst and big-play ability, Cook has a chance to cover all, if not most, of this in one carry. Even if he doesn’t hit a big play, the volume will be there for him to cross the 50-yard threshold.
Jaylen Waddle
Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
While the Bills try to run the clock with James Cook, the Dolphins will be throwing to try and catch up.
If Miami is throwing, the first thought is Tyreek Hill will be the one making plays. However, Buffalo has done a good job slowing down the Dolphins' All-Pro receiver. Hill has 17 targets for 11 catches and 102 yards. That many targets and limited chunk plays can only mean Buffalo is heavily focusing on Hill in its defensive game plan.
All the attention on Hill has left the door open for Waddle to make plays. Against Buffalo, Waddle has 13 targets, seven catches and 216 yards. That is over 30 yards per reception. With the defense shading toward Hill, Waddle has taken advantage of the open real estate.
It may just take one catch for Waddle to hit this over. And if the game goes as we suspect, he will have many opportunities to find that one big play.
The Parlay (odds via FanDuel)
- Buffalo Bills 1st Half Spread -7.5 (-110)
- Josh Allen Over 1.5 Pass TDs (-174)
- James Cook 50+ Rushing Yards (+174)
- Jaylen Waddle Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Pick: 4-Leg Same Game Parlay (+1049) |
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