Using Sean Koerner's projections in the Action Labs Player Props tool, bettors have found edges in the betting market all season.
In looking for a Dolphins vs Chargers player prop, one player who's making his return from injury stood out.
Check out my favorite Sunday Night Football pick, brought to you by The Oddsmaker's numbers.
Mike Williams is back — again.
Williams missed Weeks 9 and 10, then 12 and 13. The production has been there, as he’s averaging 4.8 catches and 63.8 yards per game in eight appearances this season. That includes a one-catch, 15-yard performance back in Week 11 when he played just 9% of snaps.
Taking that game out of the equation, Williams has gone over this total in four of seven appearances, all of which saw him play at least 76% of snaps. Two of the games that saw him go under this total were in Weeks 1 and 3.
The reason this total is so low is likely because we haven’t really seen Williams and Keenan Allen on the field at the same time since Week 1. Both were healthy in Week 11, but Williams barely played, as mentioned before.
Pick: Mike Williams Over 44.5 Receiving Yards |
Dolphins vs. Chargers has the highest total of the week at 54.5. Los Angeles’ offense doesn’t rate very well in Football Outsiders’ DVOA, but Justin Herbert can keep up with any offense.
The Chargers will be without multiple defensive starters, most notably Joey Bosa and Derwin James. Los Angeles especially struggles against the run, but that won’t stop Miami from airing it out, as well.
Three of the four games that saw Williams go over this receiving yard total this season finished with more points scored than this 54.5 total. The one that didn’t was a 27-24 loss to the Chiefs, so it only fell 3.5 points short.
Action Labs projects Williams for 50.9 receiving yards, but his upside is huge in a game like this. FanDuel posted his total at 44.5 receiving yards, as of 6:25 p.m. ET.
As long as Williams gets a normal workload, he should see enough volume from Herbert to hit this over.
