It’s tough to pick a side in this Dolphins–Chargers game, so I’m skipping that altogether and targeting some player props.
If you’re looking for different ways to bet on NFL player props, I’d recommend PrizePicks. The app allows you to parlay player props for real money in 30 states, including states where online betting is unavailable.
Let’s dive into my Week 14 Sunday Night Football PrizePicks card.
Austin Ekeler
Over/Under 46.5 Rushing Yards
The Chargers simply can’t run the ball.
The offensive line is weak and has poor chemistry; they rank 27th in line yards. Meanwhile, for all his heroics in the passing game, Austin Ekeler is just 33rd among 38 qualified running backs in DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement).
The result? The 29th rushing attack by DVOA and 30th by YPA (3.7).
Yikes.
If you want to attack Miami, you do so through the air. The Dolphins are top 10 in rush defense DVOA, but bottom 10 in pass defense DVOA. Miami’s secondary hasn’t quite gotten the job done this season.
So, Brandon Staley, the NFL’s most aggressive head coach, will let Justin Herbert cook. That hasn’t worked out well this season, but it’s the only option with a horrendous rushing game against a poor passing defense.
That will result in a low-volume game for Ekeler, at least on the ground. Not that we need any other excuse to fade Ekeler, given he’s gone under this number in nine of 12 games this season.
The Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Ekeler for just 40 rush yards, making him a valuable fade in the PrizePicks market.
Pick: Under 46.5 rush yards
Keenan Allen
Over/Under 67.5 Receiving Yards
If the Chargers decide to go with a pass-heavy game script, Keenan Allen should see plenty of targets.
Allen’s productivity has been up and down this season, mostly due to health, but he’s back in full force. He’s picked up a target marketshare over 30% in two of his past three games, capitalizing with 94 yards against Kansas City and 88 against Las Vegas.
Overall, Allen has cashed over 67.5 receiving yards in three of his six games despite his issues staying on the field.
As I mentioned, burning Miami's secondary should be relatively easy. The Dolphins are 17th in EPA per pass allowed and 23rd in pass defense DVOA. The Dolphins are also 17th in pass defense DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers, which Allen has been over the last few weeks.
The Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Allen with a median of 71 receiving yards, giving us enough value to bet this prop.
Pick: Over 67.5 receiving yards
