The Los Angeles Chargers look to bounce back and remain within striking distance of the playoffs as they welcome the Miami Dolphins to SoFi Stadium on Sunday night.
The Chargers are fresh off a late loss to the Las Vegas Raiders while the Dolphins dropped their first game since Oct. 16 last week to the San Francisco 49ers. Miami enters as 3.5-point favorites with the highest game total on the board (54.5).
Here’s a same game parlay for Sunday Night Football:
Tyreek Hill Over 94.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
The chase is on for Tyreek Hill and it’s in the realm of possibility for the star to break the single-season receiving yards record (1,964, Calvin Johnson in 2012).
The Dolphins are an explosive offense and Hill has been an integral part of the success. He’s broken the 100-yard mark in 50 percent of games and has been targeted double-digit times in seven of 12.
This is a perfect matchup against a Chargers defense that ranks bottom five in both pass pressure and defending explosive plays. L.A. is banged up and Tua Tagovailoa should have plenty of time to settle into the pocket and let plays develop.
Oftentimes, when Hill has struggled to break the 100-yard barrier this season, it’s because Miami jumps out to a hefty lead and turns to the run. In games decided by single-digits, Hill has racked up 100 yards in four of six games. In losses, he hits 100-plus at a 75% clip.
There’s a lot of reasons to back Hill here. For one, he’s the workhorse receiver in the offense and sees high-volume work each week. The total for this game is the highest on the board and for a good reason. Miami has the ability to exploit this weak Chargers defense.
Tack on the fact this is a road game for the Dolphins and the spread sits around 3 to 3.5 depending on the sportsbook, this is a true coin flip. The game script should allow Hill to stay involved for all four quarters, and we could even see a pass-heavy approach throughout.
Given Hill’s success in these situations and because there’s a realistic shot at Hill breaking the NFL record — he’s on pace for 2,068 yards — I trust Miami to use their star receiver early and often.
He’s also an explosive receiver that can eclipse half this number in one shot. Trust Hill to continue his torrid pace atop the NFL receiver ranks.
Gerald Everett Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (+115)
Gerald Everett had his best game of the season against the Raiders and I expect another strong showing.
Mike Williams returns for the Chargers, but I think that helps Everett in the long run. It adds another big body to the mix and forces the Dolphins secondary to shift their focus away from Everett.
It’s also a plus matchup for Everett, too. Miami struggles against tight ends and gives up an average of six receptions for 57.9 yards per game. We just saw Jordan Akins haul in five catches for 61 yards two weeks ago.
The Dolphins defense runs man coverage at a top-five rate, which plays perfectly into Everett’s strengths. My colleague Nick Giffen was all over Everett last week against another defense that runs man-to-man at an extremely high rate — Las Vegas — and Everett churned out 80 yards.
In the seven games Williams and Everett have played together, Everett has broken the 50-yard mark four times.
Back Everett to replicate his success from a week ago and go over his yards prop once again.
Team Total Over 27.5 (-135)
Following the narrative of the Dolphins being able to roll against a banged up Chargers defense, I agree with my colleague Brandon Anderson’s assessment on taking their team total over.
Few teams possess the ability to keep the Dolphins in check — the Chargers are not one of them. The explosiveness shared between Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill should lead to chunk gains all night against a defense that ranks bottom five in explosive plays allowed and pass pressure.
This is the perfect storm for a Dolphins offensive rout. They have gone over this number in four of their last five contests. It’s a bounce-back opportunity for Tua Tagovailoa, who will rarely be pressured and have enough time to read through his progressions.
Rather than taking a chance and backing the Dolphins spread — taking defense vs Chargers offense out of the equation — I’m backing where the biggest mismatch is and trusting Tua and co. to get the job done.
The Parlay (+425)
- T. Hill O94.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
- G. Everett O39.5 Receiving Yards (+115)
- Dolphins Team Total o27.5 (-135)
