When the Miami Dolphins blew their AFC East division lead in the final game of the regular season, they added a significant hurdle for themselves in their quest to make the Super Bowl. The Dolphins must go on the road to face the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs in the Wild Card round. Along with the general disadvantages of being on the road, they'll have to battle the weather.
Saturday's forecast calls for record-low temperatures at kickoff and wind chills that could dip below -20 before the game starts.
So how will this drastic shift in weather from sunny Miami to frigid Missouri impact the Dolphins?
Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa doesn't have an extensive history in cold weather games having played college football at Alabama and getting drafted to Miami. Saturday's matchup will be the coldest game he's played at either level.
Tagovailoa's Coldest Starts — NFL or College
- 29 degrees: Dec. 17, 2022 at Bills (L, 32-29)
- 36 degrees: Jan. 3, 2021 at Bills (L, 56-26)
- 37 degrees: Jan. 2, 2022 at Titans (L, 34-3)
The Dolphins haven't had a good track record in cold-weather games with or without Tagovailoa. In games with a temperature below 50 degrees at kickoff, the Dolphins are 15-42 (26%) straight up over the past 20 years — 2-19 in their past 21 games. When the temperature is below 40 degrees at kickoff, the Dolphins are 8-19 SU over the past 20 years and have lost nine games in a row.
On the other side of the ball, Patrick Mahomes has a strong history of success in cold-weather games. He's 25-6 SU and 18-12-1 ATS in games with a temperature below 40 degrees at kickoff. When the temperature is below freezing, Mahomes is 6-3 SU and ATS in his career.
It's not just the cold weather the Dolphins should be worried about. Against teams that made the playoffs this season, the Dolphins were just 1-5. Only the New York Giants and Washington Commanders had a worse point differential than Miami (-91) against playoff opponents.
The Dolphins will be dogs Saturday night on the road — they opened as 1.5-point underdogs and are 4.5-point 'dogs as of this writing. In their past 14 games as a road 'dog dating back to last season, the Dolphins are 2-12 SU and Tagovailoa has lost eight of his past 10 starts as a road underdog.
They've also struggled in night games during Tagovailoa's tenure as the franchise quarterback. In his previous 10 starts in night games, Tagovailoa is 4-6 SU and 3-7 against the spread. He has lost all four of his night starts as an underdog, three of which were on the road (at Philadelphia, at Buffalo, at Cincinnati) prior to the Dolphins' Week 18 loss vs the Bills this past Sunday.
The Dolphins will have plenty of motivation to reverse these trends at Arrowhead Saturday night, but they'll need all the cold weather gear they can find to brave the cold. Bundle up for an exciting matchup.
More Dolphins vs Chiefs Coverage
