Dolphins vs Chiefs Odds & Picks: Wild Card Best Bets, NFL Player Props
Dolphins vs Chiefs Odds
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+4.5 -105 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +195 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-4.5 -115 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -240 |
Dolphins vs Chiefs Pick
By Chris Raybon
Despite their defensive shortcomings, the Dolphins are dangerous because they still possess the NFL’s second-best offense according to DVOA. Kansas City’s somewhat lucky win against Miami marked its only win against an opponent with top-10 offense in five tries.
Though much of the focus this week will rightfully be on who the Dolphins are without, one player who will be available that wasn’t in Week 9 is De’Von Achane, who leads all running backs with 7.7 yards per touch (min. 100 touches) and has scored on 8.5% of his touches.
The Chiefs defense has been the best of the Mahomes era, but they have been highly susceptible to running backs, clocking in at 27th in DVOA against the run and 21st in DVOA on passes to running backs. Achane and the run game could be a major factor with forecasts calling for single-digit temps and double-digit mph winds.
The Chiefs are leaning on sound defense rather than explosive offense to win games, but with that comes lower-scoring games and more variance, which tends to favor underdogs – especially ones as explosive as Miami. Even after removing sack yardage, the Dolphins still average 8.0 yards per pass attempt, and it has been unprofitable to fade these highly efficient passing teams in the postseason.
Per our Action Labs data, teams averaging at least 7.5 yards per pass attempt after removing sack yardage are 32-15 (68%) ATS against teams averaging fewer than 7.5 since 2011, covering by 3.6 points per game.
The market also tends to underrate the possibility of upsets in the opening round of the playoffs. This has especially been true with the No. 3 seed vs. No. 6 seed matchup, with 6-seed underdogs going 20-14 (59%) ATS over the past two decades and winning nine of the last 12 outright dating back to the 2017 postseason according to our Action Labs data.
Also per Action Labs: Wild Card road dogs +7 or less are 30-18-1 (62.5%) ATS since 2003, covering by 1.9 points per game.
Bet to: +3.5
Dolphins vs Chiefs Player Props
Tua Tagovailoa
Under 239.5 Passing Yards (-110)
For a variety of reasons, the Dolphins actually remind me more of the high-powered Kansas City teams from years past than the current iteration of the Chiefs.
The Dolphins finished the season ranked second in scoring and first in total offense — on the other side of the ball, they ranked 22nd in points allowed and 10th in total yardage. Not to mention, they also snagged K.C.’s top wide receiver from that era, Tyreek Hill.
That said, the biggest difference between the Kansas City teams of years past and this season's Miami team is the talent gap at quarterback between Patrick Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa.
Mahomes used to be able to put the Chiefs on his back and carry them to victory in shootouts when Travis Kelce and Hill were both by his side, whereas Tagovailoa continues to fold under pressure in big moments despite the plethora of dynamic weaponry at his disposal.
Tagovailoa has thrown for 240 yards or less in four of the Dolphins’ last five games, and he completed just 21-of-34 pass attempts for 193 yards in an ugly offensive performance vs. Kansas City in Week 9.
Travis Kelce
Anytime TD (+115)
Here are my problems with this game: the weather is supposed to be horrible, both offenses haven’t looked great recently and the total is trending down below 44.
So why are ATDs being priced like we’ll see closer to 50 points? The prices for the Chiefs are borderline insane with Travis Kelce at -110 (he hasn’t caught a TD in six games) and Isiah Pacheco favored to score at -120.
If you can find Kelce at +110 or better, I’d consider it since he’s scored in every Chiefs playoff game since losing the Super Bowl to Tampa Bay (six games).
Pick: Travis Kelce Anytime TD (+115)
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