One more win is all Miami needed to avoid playing its first playoff game on the road. Blowing a two-touchdown lead against the Titans now officially flipped the Dolphins from playing in 75-degree weather to one of the coldest games in the history of the NFL. Miami struggled last year when forced to face the elements, losing their end-of-year games in Buffalo and New England. We will see if they find a way to play better in the cold this year.
If there is one team to not doubt in the cold, it is the Kansas City Chiefs. Year after year, we have seen Patrick Mahomes magic in the playoffs. And if there were a year the Chiefs needed magic, this is it. Kansas City's offense has produced at its lowest level of the Mahomes era. Fortunately, the Chiefs' regular-season struggles will be forgotten if they can make it to their sixth straight conference championship.
Let’s see if we can build a Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs parlay to take advantage of the weather and both teams' recent dip in performance.
Dolphins vs Chiefs Same Game Parlay (+950 via DraftKings):
- Alt Under 40.5
- Dolphins +6.5
- Travis Kelce Anytime TD Scorer
Alt Under 40.5
Dolphins vs. Chiefs | 8 p.m. ET
The combination of weather and both teams struggling in recent weeks has the public smashing the under in this game, with 82% of the bets and 90% of the money on the under. Everyone is on board for the impact of a historically cold game.
Beyond the impact of weather, these teams simply have not shown the offensive capabilities in recent weeks they did early in the year. Before their bye, the Chiefs had four games with more than 350 yards of offense. Since their bye, they have just two games of at least 350 yards of offense.
Miami, meanwhile, was competing for the top seed in the AFC before playing three playoff teams. The Dolphins averaged a mere 18.3 points, well below its 29.2 season-long average.
This game is going to be historically cold and both of these offenses have struggled entering the playoffs. This will not be the week for them to bounce back.
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Dolphins +6.5
Dolphins vs. Chiefs | 8 p.m. ET
If both teams struggle to score, picking up a touchdown underdog should fit perfectly into our game script. In perfect conditions, this matchup was a touchdown difference and that was due to a shocking fumble for a touchdown surrendered by Tyreek Hill. I expect this game to be similarly competitive, without the anomaly play.
In addition to these teams being evenly matched, I think the weather will influence decision-making. We have seen Mike McDaniel be one of the more aggressive coaches with his fourth-down calls. In this game, though, I expect both teams to treat points as hard to come by and be more willing to settle for field goals. This will give Miami a little more wiggle room to cover the 6.5-point spread.
Travis Kelce Anytime TD Scorer
Dolphins vs. Chiefs | 8 p.m. ET
This bet is contrarian to what we put together with our weather take but, combined with our other bets, gives a nice boost to our total odds. Isiah Pacheco is another good choice to find the end zone, but I think Travis Kelce has the added value of not performing to his standard at the end of the season.
The main motivation behind this pick is that Kelce is simply unstoppable in the playoffs. He averages 102 yards receiving and 1.1 touchdowns per game. We mentioned scoring opportunities being scarce in this matchup, so when they are presented neither team will want to squander the opportunity. Kansas City will look to feed its best skill position player when the possessions become more valuable.
This is trusting the historic connection between Mahomes and Kelce. Think of it like trusting Tom Brady to feed Rob Gronkowski when it mattered most.
