The grand finale of the Thursday NFL Thanksgiving slate features two surging teams in the Miami Dolphins and Green Bay Packers. The game is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET at Lambeau Field and will be broadcast on NBC and Peacock.
Get ready for an onslaught of media coverage about how the Dolphins don't fare well in cold weather. Tua Tagovailoa has typically seen his passing metrics drop off a cliff when playing in cold temperatures. While I do expect him to have some success this week, the upside on Miami’s passing attack is capped.
Also, it’s not like Jordan Love and the Packers have lit it up when dealing with the elements either. In Week 9 at home vs. the Lions, Love and the Pack struggled offensively in wind and rain. Even in Week 1 with poor weather in Brazil, Love only completed 50% of his passes. All this to say: bad weather isn’t a one-way street.
Let's get into my two Dolphins vs. Packers anytime touchdown scorer predictions for Thursday night.
Dolphins vs. Packers Anytime TD Scorers
- WR Tyreek Hill +150 (Caesars)
- TE Tucker Kraft +245 (DraftKings)
Tyreek Hill Anytime Touchdown (+150)
I’m not going to overcomplicate the Dolphins side and bet WR Tyreek Hill at +150.
He’s got two touchdowns in four games with five red-zone targets with Tua Tagovailoa back at quarterback. While he can be a deep threat, it’s encouraging that both of his TDs since Tagovailoa returned have been inside the 10-yard line.
The Packers may be missing All-Pro CB Jaire Alexander. That being said, if the Packers do what the Bills and Patriots did — blanket Hill and let other players beat them — that means Jaylen Waddle could see an uptick since he has scored in the games Hill didn’t.
You could technically bet both TD props and expect at least one to score for a smaller profit, but I’ll go with Hill.
Tucker Kraft (+245)
If the Packers are smart, they’ll lean heavily on the ground game with Josh Jacobs (-185) and Emanuel Wilson (+700).
Jacobs is coming off a three-TD game vs. the Niners, and while I think he’ll score, it’s worth mentioning that the Fins haven’t allowed a rushing TD in four games since Tagovailoa returned. Even Jordan Love at +550 isn’t great considering the Dolphins are one of four teams who have yet to allow a QB to rush for a TD.
Let’s just stick to Packers pass-catchers.
You have to start with Christian Watson at +210 considering Romeo Doubs is out. While this Packers team is slightly different from last year, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that in four games without Doubs in 2022, Christian Watson scored eight touchdowns.
That being said, Tucker Kraft (+245) would be where I’d go. He has six touchdowns this season and the Dolphins have allowed the most targets to TEs this season.
