Sit back, loosen that belt and enjoy the best NFL game of the day from Lambeau Field. And we have a Dolphins vs. Packers parlay for you to enjoy it with.
I’m following the trends for my pick against the spread, recent performance on the game total and the matchup for my player prop. We have every market covered and came up with a +950 Thanksgiving parlay at DraftKings.
These three legs don't exactly correlate, which gives us higher odds. Normally, you wouldn't take a 10.5-point favorite and the under, and you also wouldn't take a touchdown scorer prop with the under. It all works, though, and gives us a good shot at winning.
Let’s lay out my three legs and get to my NFL parlay to begin the Turkey Day tripleheader.
NFL Parlay for Dolphins vs. Packers
- Packers ML (-175)
- Under 48 (-112)
- Tucker Kraft Anytime Touchdown (+155)
Parlay Odds: +700 | $10 Bet Wins $70
Leg 1: Packers ML (-175)
Leg 2: Under 48 (-112)
These plays are driven by Thanksgiving trends and the weather. (All trends are via our director of research Evan Abrams.)
On Thanksgiving night, favorites tend to thrive. The team laying the points is 13-4 against the spread (ATS) since 2006, when the third game was added to the schedule.
Here, though, I’m hesitant to lay the 3.5 points.
First, we’re obviously on the opposite side of the key number of three. Against a potentially explosive offense like the Dolphins, I don’t love that. Also, Matt LaFleur is 2-6 ATS as a favorite on short rest, including 1-6 ATS at Lambeau Field.
I simply cannot bet on the Dolphins here because of the weather, though. We saw back in January what the Miami offense led by Tua Tagovailoa looks like in the cold, while the Packers ground game has proven it can power a victory. Josh Jacobs scored three times against the 49ers and is playing like a potential All-Pro selection.
The forecast in Green Bay on Thursday has a high of 33 degrees with winds hitting 10 mph. There is also an outside chance of snow that night, which would further strengthen both of these legs.
So, instead of laying Miami 3.5 points, I’ll take the Packers moneyline for this parlay. If the spread gets down to Packers -3, I’d recommend including that instead.
While part of the reason I’m on the under is because of Miami’s offense playing at the Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field, the trends also indicate this game is going under.
Unders in the night game on Thanksgiving are 11-6 since 2006 and go under by more than four points per game. When the total is 43 or higher in that span, the under is 8-3.
Leg 3: Tucker Kraft Anytime TD Scorer (+155)
Tucker Kraft has been a huge part of the Packers’ success this season with six touchdowns in 11 games. While he’s been quiet with just two receptions for 26 yards over Green Bay’s last two games, he still found the end zone in the blowout win over the 49ers.
Over those last two weeks, Kraft has been targeted three times. All three of those targets have come in the red zone.
In that span, no Packers wide receiver has more than one red-zone target. When the Packers get inside the 20-yard line, Jordan Love’s eyes are on Kraft.
Also, the Dolphins are 22nd in the NFL in DVOA against opposing tight ends, making this a strong matchup for Kraft.
Romeo Doubs suffered a concussion against the 49ers and is unlikely to play on a short week. He's the most-targeted Packers receiver this season, which is a big blow.
I expect Green Bay to rely heavily on Jacobs and Emmanuel Wilson in the run game to move down the field. Then, it'll be either Jacobs or Kraft to finish the job and score the touchdown.
