The NFL has saved the best for last on Thanksgiving. After a double-digit-point spread and two backup quarterbacks started the day, the best game (on paper) of the day will be at Lambeau Field on Thursday night with the Miami Dolphins and Green Bay Packers.
With these potentially high-powered offenses, I'm betting three overs for my Dolphins-Packers props. Enjoy your pie, loosen the belt and relax.
Dolphins vs Packers Player Props
- De'Von Achane Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-115, DraftKings)
- Josh Jacobs Over 16.5 Rush Attempts (-120, BetMGM)
- Tucker Kraft Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-115, DraftKings)
De'Von Achane Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Fortunately for the Dolphins, they blew out the Patriots on Sunday and were able to keep De'Von Achane’s workload to just 13 touches. That’s his lightest load since Week 5, so he should be poised for as many carries as necessary here.
Achane has gone over this rushing total in four of his last six games, and this sets up as a game the Dolphins will want to keep the ball on the ground. Green Bay has a middling rush defense, and the cold temperatures should lead both teams to keep the ball on the ground.
Sean Koerner is projecting Achane for 61 rushing yards, so I’d play this one up to 57.5.
Josh Jacobs Over 16.5 Rush Attempts (-120)
It’s clear how the Packers want to attack teams this season, especially as they wait for Jordan Love to blow up the way he did last year: run the ball.
Josh Jacobs has gone over this in six of the Packers’ 11 games this season, including three of the last four and five of the last seven. And this is a clear smash spot for him.
The Dolphins defense ranks 26th in the NFL in DVOA against the run. It’s an ideal spot for Green Bay to establish the ground game on a short week with the temperature likely in the 20s at kickoff.
Tucker Kraft Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Romeo Doubs is likely out this week for the Packers due to a concussion, which means Love will be without the team’s most-targeted receiver this season.
I initially looked to Christian Watson as the primary beneficiary and still don’t mind his receiving yards total as long as it’s below 47.5. The expert data, though, pushed me in another direction for this pick.
Raybon has Tucker Kraft projected for 39 receiving yards, while Koerner’s mean projection for the Packers’ starting tight end is 36.
Kraft only has 26 receiving yards over the Packers’ last two games combined, but he has been hugely reliable this season, catching 71.4% of his 42 targets this season.
Kraft has taken over as Green Bay’s TE1 this season, playing at least 80% of snaps in nine of 11 games this season. He only played 79% last week, but that was more because the Packers beat the 49ers by 28.
I’d play this over up to 33.5.
