To cap off the second Sunday of the 2023 NFL season, the Miami Dolphins head to Gillette Stadium for a date with the New England Patriots.
The Dolphins picked up an impressive road win last week against the Chargers, and they hope to build on that in Foxborough in Week 2. The Patriots suffered a close home loss to the Eagles in Week 1, and they look to bounce back with a win over their AFC East rivals.
Here’s a three-leg same-game parlay for Sunday Night Football of NFL Week 2, which I put together on FanDuel.
Patriots +3.5
Alt Line (-138)
It’s easy to overreact to Week 1. In fact, it’s quite common in NFL betting.
No game better encapsulates that than the Dolphins vs. Patriots on Sunday Night Football. Last week the Dolphins opened the season in Los Angeles, lit up the scoreboard and racked up over 500 yards of offense in a win over the Chargers.
The Patriots? They lost their season opener behind five turnovers — three on downs — against an Eagles team that has looked shaky through two weeks.
Yet the Dolphins are only three-point favorites? If the line seems fishy, that’s because it is. Vegas is baiting the public to hop aboard Miami, and it’s easy to see why.
Each week at Action Network, my colleague Nick Giffen runs his Luck Rankings Model as he looks for spots to attack in the market. This week he has circled the Patriots on Sunday Night Football as one of his top picks.
These teams have two contrasting identities. Miami loves to run and gun while New England likes to slow the game down and grind it out. It’s no secret that the Dolphins' high-octane offense is dangerous, but their defense really struggled in the opener.
Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley combined for 208 yards on the ground and led the Chargers to convert nine of 15 third downs. Meanwhile, the Patriots' defense remained stout — they just suffered from bad variance.
After holding Philly to an opening-drive field goal, Mac Jones threw a pick-six. On the next play from scrimmage, Ezekiel Elliott fumbled inside the New England 30. It was 17-0 in a blink of an eye.
But the Eagles amassed just 251 yards of total offense, which kept the Patriots alive. New England nearly came all the way back to win but turned it over on downs on three of its last four drives.
All this is to say I’m not going to overreact to Week 1. Are the Dolphins a powerhouse on offense? Totally.
But this New England defense is no joke, and Miami has to go across the country after a shootout in Los Angeles to face a hungry Patriots team in Foxborough.
I’m going against the public here. Rather than laying the current spread — given it’s a same-game parlay and allows me to throw in some alt lines — I’m grabbing New England +3.5 at -138.
Rhamondre Stevenson
Over 51.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Given that I believe New England keeps this close and is more than live to win, I'll also bet on Rhamondre Stevenson finding success on the ground in our same-game parlay.
Stevenson had a quiet Week 1, finishing with 12 rushes for 25 yards, but this was in a tough matchup against the elite Eagles defensive line. They shut down Alexander Mattison on Thursday Night Football, too.
This is the perfect bounce-back spot for Stevenson. Last week, Ekeler (117 yards) and Kelley (91 yards) combined for 6.5 yards per rush. They gashed Miami in the trenches and ripped off five separate 10+ yard gains.
The Patriots found themselves in a negative game script within the first quarter of Week 1. I don’t believe that’ll happen here, and I’m expecting Belichick to stick to his plan of slowing the game down and utilizing Stevenson in the run game.
While Ezekiel Elliott did join the backfield this offseason and had seven carries in Week 1, he was outsnapped by Stevenson 58-28. Simply put, this is Stevenson’s backfield.
Even in a limited role in 2022, he was extremely effective by averaging five yards per carry and amassing 1,000 total yards. In games where he has 14+ carries, he has eclipsed 50+ rushing yards in six of eight games.
Can this game turn into a shootout? It’s a possibility given Miami’s high-octane offense and tendency to run up the score. Even then, the Chargers backs combined for 200 yards.
This number seems disrespectful to a running back who should get at least 15-20 carries on Sunday night. If New England holds a lead late, Stevenson will be a workhorse.
Mike Gesicki
Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Ah, the Mike Gesicki revenge game.
Gesicki only played 33 snaps in Week 1 but caught all three of his targets for 36 yards, including one for 17 yards.
Even with Hunter Henry as the clear No. 1 tight end in New England, Gesicki will be on the field often.
Our experts project value on this prop as Action Network PRO's projection is closer to 20.5 receiving yards, resulting in a double-digit percentage edge based on the current market price.
Last week, the Dolphins allowed Gerald Everett and Donald Parham Jr. to combine for 43 yards and a touchdown as they caught five of six targets.
With the Patriots utilizing the run game in this matchup, they will play fewer receivers and employ more two-tight-end sets, which opens up opportunities for Gesicki.
In 2022, Gesicki averaged seven yards per reception, though he has big-play ability. In 10 of 17 games, he hauled in a reception of 14+ yards. That’s even including a four-game stretch late in the season when he caught just one pass for five yards.
This isn’t for the faint of heart. Gesicki will probably only be on the field for 30-35 snaps as the second tight end in New England. However, his usage in Week 1 and the Action Network PRO projections give me enough confidence that Jones will find him multiple times on Sunday night.
Dolphins vs. Patriots Same Game Parlay +402
- Mike Gesicki Over 15.5 Receiving Yards
- Rhamondre Stevenson Over 51.5 Rushing Yards
- Patriots +3.5
