Normally every week I write a pass, wait or play piece on our Luck Rankings games. Those write-ups come out every Wednesday but I have COVID and can't really do any video work right now, so I made use of that free time to get a bit of a head start on luck-based game previews.
As the developer of our Expected Score metric, luck-based games are one of my specialty areas. I try to combine that with other football knowledge to make smart picks on sides and totals in games involving luck. That's led me to a 9-4-1 record so far this year on these luck-based bets.
There's a handful of luck-based totals this week, but in my early deep dive, it turns out there are enough factors in addition to luck in this Patriots vs. Dolphins game to warrant its own writeup.
Combining luck, weather and injuries, there's no way I can pass on taking the under of 47, which is the most key number in the world of totals between 44 and 51. I'd only expect this to move down as injury reports update, and as weather forecasts sharpen.
I didn't want to wait for Wednesday on this one, so here you go.
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NFL Luck Rankings Week 8: Patriots vs. Dolphins Prediction
Luck
On the luck side of things, let's start simple and work toward the more complex.
This game has a luck total of -6.7, which is important because games from Week 3 until the end of the season that have a luck total of -5 or lower are 109-73-2 (59.8%) to the under over the last six years, including 15-7 (68.2%) so far this year.
Another nice factor is that this is a result of both teams' contributions. The seven games involving the Dolphins have totaled 427 points this year compared to an Expected Score of 394.7 total points. Likewise, the Patriots' numbers are 278 compared to 263.4 expected.
What's particularly helpful is the fact that the higher-scoring team here — Miami — is the one more severely impacted by luck.
If we look at Miami's points scored compared to their offensive Expected Score and do the same for New England's defense then add those up, Miami's Luck Team Total is -7.4. In other words, the Dolphins' high-powered offense has been a bit lucky to score, and the Patriots have been a bit unlucky defensively. Combined, there's a solid chance the better of the two offenses gets slowed down more.
In total, games involving the Patriots or Dolphins have an average Expected Score of 46.3 points.
Now, we need to adjust that for their competition both offensively and defensively. Miami's average opponent has been involved in games with an average Expected Score of 44.5 points while New England's average opponent sits at 44.7. The average total Expected Score per game in the NFL this year is 43.4 points, which is right in line with the actual average points per game.
Funnily enough, because the adjustments are similar enough for both teams, it turns out the adjusted Expected Score of this game is also 46.3 points.
Weather
Now, I'm not a meteorologist, but I do know how to look up a few weather forecasts and they all have one thing in common: wind.
The general consensus is that there will be winds just north of 15 mph during game time with even breezier gusts. That's enough to have triggered one of our PRO Systems: the High Winds system with a 57% hit rate to the under for a 10% return on investment (ROI).
The 46.3 expected total is the default total under median weather conditions, which is a low-wind environment. Even if the forecast is wrong, the lack of wind wouldn’t raise the expected total or create a better environment for the over.
There have been six games so far this season that have had a Luck Total lower than -5 and the High Wind system. Those games are 6-0 to the under.
Injuries
Miami's offensive line is thoroughly banged up. In fact, the whole left side and its center were all backups at the end of its loss to the Eagles.
Four-time Pro Bowl left tackle Terron Armstead is on injured reserve. Left Guard and former first-round pick Isaiah Wynn left the loss with a quadriceps injury and is likely out multiple weeks. Center Connor Williams, though, has a shot to return in Week 8.
There's also the potential for WR Jaylen Waddle to be limited after a back injury reportedly had him on all fours in the locker room against the Eagles. He returned to play after an exit, but any limitations would impact Miami's offensive efficiency.
Defensively for the Dolphins, they could get a big boost if CB Jalen Ramsey makes his Dolphins debut. Ramsey hasn't played this season because of a torn meniscus, but his 21-day practice window was opened this past Wednesday, which signifies a return is imminent in the next couple of weeks. A potential return would boost a Dolphins defense that ranked 24th in Pass DVOA.
Fellow cornerback Xavien Howard is also likely to return after he reportedly narrowly missed out on facing the Eagles.
New England's injury situation is less volatile than Miami's, but most of the news also helps the under. Linebacker Josh Uche is likely to return after missing Week 7 against Buffalo, while second-round rookie Keion White saw his snap count rise above 50% prior to his Week 6 injury against the Raiders. He missed the win over Buffalo but could return, as well.
JuJu Smith-Schuster may return from a concussion this week. As a standalone offensive piece that typically operates with short catches, Smith-Schuster's potential return shouldn't have much, if any, impact or benefit to the over.
