NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions
| Pick |
|---|
| Dolphins-Saints Under 38 |
| Dolphins ML (-154) at Saints |
Under 38
Brandon Anderson: The Saints offense is running on fumes.
Ian Book is a fourth-string quarterback who has never taken an NFL snap, and on Monday night, he'll be without both of his tackles. The Saints rank second to last in Expected Points Added (EPA) per snap offensively over the past six weeks while the Dolphins lead the league in defensive EPA over that stretch, especially against the pass. Talk about a rough first start for Book, who is sure to see a ton of blitz and pressure from this aggressive Brian Flores defense.
The Saints were already struggling to move the ball and score while the Dolphins are unlikely to put up a big number against a tough defense that just shut out Tom Brady. Plus since 2003, night games with a total that closes between 37 and 40 points have gone 60-39-3 to the under (61%), per our Action Labs data.
I like the Dolphins if you can lock them in at -2.5 or better, but even with the already-low line, I'll play the under down to 37.
Dolphins ML -154
Michael Arinze: After a seven-loss streak, the Dolphins bounced back to win their next six contests. However, before we lavish them with praise, five of those six wins were against teams with a combined record of 17-43. That amounts to a .283 winning percentage, in case you're wondering.
The best team the Dolphins beat over their win streak was the Ravens, and they did it as 8.5-point home underdogs. But otherwise, they've played a soft schedule since November and have benefited from the lack of dynamism their opponents have on offense. In other words, each of those opponents ranks in the bottom-half of Football Outsiders' pass DVOA. Moreover, four of the five are ranked 27th or worse.
On Monday night, the Dolphins will play yet another team ranked in the bottom-half of pass DVOA when they travel to New Orleans to take on the Saints, who are turning to rookie quarterback Ian Book for his first career start.
Book's NFL experience is limited to a second-half appearance in Week 1 of the preseason against the Ravens, when he completed 9-of-16 passes for 126 yards and threw an interception. While the lack of experience is undoubtedly a concern, it was even more damning to read reports that the Saints made overtures to Drew Brees and Philip Rivers in an attempt to lure them out of retirement.
Although I'd love to be a contrarian, I can't back the Saints if the organization is hesitant to do the same for its rookie quarterback. As a result, I'll bypass the spread and play the Dolphins on the moneyline. PointsBet has the best price on the board as of noon ET at -154 (bet $154 to win $100), but I would play them up to -165 (shop for the best real-time line here).
