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Dolphins at Steelers Odds & Picks
- Odds: Steelers -14
- Over/Under: 43.5
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: ESPN
Odds as of early Monday afternoon and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
The Miami Dolphins once again find themselves as double-digit underdogs — this time on the road against a Mason Rudolph-quarterbacked Pittsburgh Steelers.
Is there value on this spread? Where are the other betting edges?
Our experts reveal how they're betting Monday Night Football below.
Sean Koerner: James Washington Under 2.5 Receptions (+115)
This prop is offering quite a bit of value.
Washington returns from a one-game absence due to a shoulder injury. He's the Steelers' main deep threat, but he likely won't see the volume to favor the over tonight.
The Steelers have implemented a very conservative offense ever since Ben Roethlisberger suffered his season-ending injury, and you have to imagine that they'll be even more conservative in a game they're favored by 14 points, leaning on their running game and short-to-intermediate passing game involving JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson and Vance McDonald.
Sure, Washington could slip open for a huge play or two, which is why I'm avoiding his receiving yards props that range from 27-30 yards. By taking the under on 2.5 receptions, it gives us plenty of insurance if he manages a big play against the Dolphins' leaky defense.
I simulated this game 10,000 times to project his chances of finishing with a certain number of receptions:
I give this prop about a 70% chance of going under despite the +115 price. That's massive value, and I would likely bet this number down to the -170 range.
Mike Randle: Dolphins +14
Ryan Fitzpatrick can put up points regardless of the defense that he faces. Last week at Buffalo, "Fitzmagic" posted 282 yards and two total touchdowns for the overall QB8 finish. This was accomplished on the road against the fifth-best pass defense according to Football Outsiders' DVOA.
The Dolphins have athletic playmaking wide receivers in DeVante Parker and Preston Williams, with veteran wide receiver Allen Hurns serving as a viable WR3. Tight end Mike Gesicki has finally seen increased volume with 11 targets and 92 receiving yards over his past two games. Pittsburgh has been the fourth-most generous defense to opposing tight ends this season.
Pittsburgh has run a conservative offense with Mason Rudolph, who has crested 200 passing yards in just one of his four starts. Smith-Schuster has been non-existent, totaling a minuscule 15 or fewer receiving yards in two of Pittsburgh's past three games. The Steelers also play at the sixth-slowest pace, providing more support for taking Miami with 14 points.
With Fitzpatrick's perseverance and the Steelers' limited offense, the spread is too much to overlook. I'll take Miami +14 to keep it close. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
