DraftKings Posts -EV Super Bowl TD Market: If Player Doesn’t Make SB, You Still Lose Bet

DraftKings Posts -EV Super Bowl TD Market: If Player Doesn’t Make SB, You Still Lose Bet article feature image
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Photo by Kathryn Riley/Getty Images. Pictured: Jared Goff.

DraftKings has posted a Super Bowl anytime TD market with extreme levels of negative expected value.

If the player you bet on doesn't make the Super Bowl: tough luck. Your bet will still be settled as a loss.

DraftKings is already offering an anytime touchdown market for the Super Bowl.

The fine print; If the player doesn’t play or make the Super Bowl, the bet is STILL action 😂 pic.twitter.com/PxgfQvm09Q

— Connor Allen (@ConnorAllenNFL) January 8, 2024

Some of the odds are curiously juiced. For instance, Steelers wide receiver Diontae Johnson has +5500 odds to score a touchdown in the Super Bowl. The Steelers' odds to make the Super Bowl at FanDuel — the country's most popular sportsbook — are +6000. So, not only do the Steelers need to win their +6000 odds, but Johnson needs to score a TD in the game, too. Johnson scored in just five of 13 games this season.

Similarly, Steelers running back Najee Harris has odds at +5500 to score a touchdown in the Super Bowl — less than the +6000 FanDuel is offering on Pittsburgh to even make the Super Bowl. Harris has scored in just seven of his 17 games this year.

The ancillary examples are myriad. The first TD scorer for the Super Bowl market, too, is heavily juiced and negative expected value — even more so.

About the Author
Avery Yang is an editor at the Action Network who focuses on breaking news across the sports world and betting algorithms that try to predict eventual outcomes. He is also Darren Rovell's editor. Avery is a recent graduate from Northwestern University's Medill School of Journalism. He has written for the Washington Post, the Associated Press, Sports Illustrated, (the old) Deadspin, MLB.com and others.

Follow Avery Yang @avery_yang on Twitter/X.

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