We have the first ever NFL game in Brazil tonight, and it's a heavyweight matchup.
I'm backing Jayden Reed for a big game tonight after a breakout rookie season. Here's how and why.
Eagles-Packers Player Prop Pick
Jayden Reed
Over 45.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)
Reed is coming off of an excellent rookie season during which his 2.05 yards per route run rate ranked fourth among qualified rookies. He was targeted on a team-high 22.5% of his routes.
However, since Reed played strictly in the slot, he typically ran a route on 65% of Jordan Love’s dropbacks. Slot WRs had success against the Eagles last year, averaging the third-most yards per game. The Eagles selected CB Quinyon Mitchell in the first round to potentially shore that up, but rookie CBs (even first-rounders) tend to get picked on by opposing QBs early on. That could be the case tonight, and Mitchell did tend to get beat downfield in college.
Reed’s rushing ability makes the over on this prop so sneaky.
Through eight games last season, Reed only had one rush for -2 yards. In Weeks 9-14, Reed averaged 1.7 rush attempts and 20 rush yards per game.
Aaron Jones was out for three of the games, and at the time I had a theory that the Packers may give Reed more direct rush attempts to compensate for Jones being out of the lineup. That appeared to be the case. With Jones out of the picture and Reed showcasing his rushing ability last year, I think we see him get 1-2 rush attempts out of the gate, especially considering how thin the Packers backfield is right now.
Josh Jacobs was brought in as the new lead back, but A.J. Dillon was placed on season-ending IR last week and both backups MarShawn Lloyd and Emanuel Wilson are questionable for this game. I think this is a spot the Packers may plan on giving Reed a couple of direct rush attempts since their RB depth is fairly thin tonight and wanting a much-needed spark.
Reed averaged +2.4 yards over expected per run last season according to NextGenStats, which would have been by far the highest in the league. He also managed to hit 15+ mph on nine of his 11 runs, meaning he was getting plenty of momentum for explosive runs. It’s something I expect the Packers to tap into even more this year, starting with tonight.
I’m projecting him closer to 50.5 rush + rec yds tonight with around a 60% chance to clear this.
