Super Bowl LVII is quickly approaching and the Philadelphia Eagles enter as slight 1.5-point favorites against the Kansas City Chiefs.
If you’re reading this article, you believe the Eagles are going to lift the trophy by night’s end. The total is rapidly rising in what sets up to be an entertaining bout between two high-octane offenses. Explosive plays will be plentiful.
The Eagles have blown out both their opponents in their Super Bowl run thus far, but draw their toughest competition yet.
As part of my same game parlay, we’ll start with Leg 1: Eagles ML.
From there, I've built a narrative around how the game is expected to play out. The Eagles will likely rely on their running backs to help push them over the edge — especially when it comes to chewing clock — while the Chiefs look to air it out behind MVP Patrick Mahomes.
Kenneth Gainwell
Over 12.5 Receiving Yards
One of the surprises of Philly's playoff run has been the success and dominance of Kenneth Gainwell. He has not only been a reliable receiving threat, but he’s shown himself to be a strong runner, too.
But the way to attack his prop, in my opinion, is through the air. As my colleague Stuckey pointed out on ‘Green Dot Daily,’ 23 running backs had at least three catches in 19 games against the Chiefs.
Kansas City is 28th in DVOA against pass-catching backs and Gainwell is set up to be the primary beneficiary of those struggles.
He has carved out a large role in the Eagles offense as the season comes to an end — 26 rushes in two playoff games — but has always been a reliable third-down option.
Since their win against Green Bay on Nov. 27, Gainwell has caught a pass in every single game. He’s eclipsed double-digits in receiving yards in four of nine games, but finished with nine yards twice. Against the 49ers, he finished with 26.
Beyond the great matchup, why I like Gainwell's chances to go over is his snap count. Gainwell has broken 40% of snaps in three of the Eagles’ last six games. The blowout wins have been helpful to Boston Scott’s increase in touches, but Gainwell consistently finds himself in pass-catching opportunities.
Take a look at K.C.’s recent games. Joe Mixon caught three passes for 15 yards and Samaje Perine added three receptions himself. Jacksonville? Travis Etienne went three for 18.
In what’s expected to be a back-and-forth, high-scoring game, Gainwell should see a few targets. And with Jalen Hurts’ shoulder still in question, there’s a higher chance of check-down looks.
Give me Gainwell as the second leg here as he takes advantage of one of the Chiefs’ weaknesses.
Miles Sanders
60+ Rushing Yards
When it comes to same game parlays, you want correlated plays. If the Eagles are going to win in a close game, Miles Sanders will be leaned on heavily.
Teams are starting to figure out Jalen Hurts. There’s obviously no stopping the explosive quarterback — who still may be battling a lingering right shoulder injury — but his yards per rush has dropped significantly in the playoffs.
Meanwhile, Sanders continues to star this season. He nearly doubled his rush attempts from a season ago and while he’s always been efficient on the ground, the 25-year-old has finally been given full reign of the backfield.
Sanders is used in high-leverage situations. He only had 11 carries against San Francisco, but the game was long over early into the third quarter. He did score two touchdowns, though. Against the Giants, he rushed for 90 yards.
Sanders averages 4.9 yards per game and draws a Chiefs defense that ranks 22nd against the rush, per Pro Football Focus. He’ll surely see double-digit carries and in a closer game, that number could very well inch toward the 15-20 range.
Even with Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell there to spell some snaps, the Eagles use Sanders when the games matter most. He’ll get the early down work and likely the last few carries if the Eagles control the clock late in the fourth quarter.
Sanders is also an extremely explosive back. He rushed for 10-plus yards in a single carry in 16-of-19 games. He hit 20-plus yards on a carry six times.
Correlation is the way to go here and if the Eagles are going to get the job done, it’ll be through their dominant offensive line. Look for them to lean on Sanders.
Jerick McKinnon
Under 19.5 Rushing Yards
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been activated and Isiah Pacheco took control of the backfield against Cincinnati, which leaves Jerick McKinnon competing in a crowded backfield for rushes.
In what sets up to be an Eagles win, McKinnon will likely see little-to-no ground work. In the passing game, sure. But he’s been incredibly inefficient as a rusher of late, with 15 carries for 26 yards in the playoffs.
Over the final three weeks of the regular season, he had just nine carries for 17 yards — if it weren’t for a walk-off 26-yard touchdown against Houston, McKinnon would have finished with nine carries for 26 yards.
All that to show how bad the veteran running back has been on the ground. The Eagles also rank 11th in efficiency against the rush, per PFF. While they are a bit of a rush-funnel defense because of their dominant secondary, it’ll be mostly Pacheco receiving the ground work.
If you want another reason to feel confident adding this to an Eagles-centric same game parlay, my colleague Chris Raybon has been finding every way to fade McKinnon. He’s on the under for his longest rush and under 5.5 carries, which he broke down on ‘Green Dot Daily’ on Friday.
I was debating adding McKinnon's receiving over to the parlay — because he will likely get some passing work in an Eagles win — but this is the better way to fade him.
Kadarius Toney
Over 28.5 Receiving Yards
What’s a same game parlay without a little fun?
JuJu Smith-Schuster has the most difficult matchup of all Chiefs wide receivers. He’ll be lining up on the outside — most likely against Darius Slay — which puts value on other wideouts.
Travis Kelce is the obvious beneficiary and first option for Patrick Mahomes, but we saw Kadarius Toney slowly become a big part of the offense as the season progressed. He nearly had a touchdown to begin the Cincinnati game but was injured shortly after.
But the gadget receiver returned to practice and with Mecole Hardman out, Toney should see plenty of targets. Against Jacksonville, he had five receptions for 36 yards. On New Year’s Day, he torched the Broncos for 71 yards.
Toney is mostly a short-yardage receiver who is extremely explosive. Could he be used in an end-around? Definitely. Could we get a shovel pass? It’s a possibility.
Andy Reid will be creative and Toney is the perfect weapon to use in these situations. Everyone is flocking toward Kelce and with Smith-Schuster struggling and having a tough matchup, I love targeting Toney.
In what sets up to be a more pass-heavy script with the Chiefs trailing — given our starting point with an Eagles win — Toney could very well see five-plus targets.
The Parlay (+1518)
- Eagles ML
- K. Gainwell over 12.5 Receiving Yards
- M. Sanders 60+ Rushing Yards
- J. McKinnon under 19.5 Rushing Yards
- K. Toney over 28.5 Receiving Yards
5-Leg Same Game Parlay! |
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