In an injury filled Monday Night Football matchup to cap off Wild Card Weekend, the shorthanded Philadelphia Eagles head to Tampa Bay for a bout with the Buccaneers.
Both quarterbacks enter with injuries while the Eagles will also be without star wideout A.J. Brown. This game could turn ugly quickly as the total continues to drop in favor of the under.
Here’s how I’m betting MNF’s wild-card finale with an Eagles vs Buccaneers same game parlay.
Eagles vs Buccaneers Same Game Parlay: NFL Wild Card SGP (+500 via FanDuel)
- Kenneth Gainwell Over 1.5 Receptions
- DeVonta Smith Under 69.5 Receiving Yards
- Under 43
Kenneth Gainwell Over 1.5 Receptions
Eagles vs. Buccaneers | 8:15 p.m. ET
There’s a lot of concern for this Eagles team as it continues a spiral toward mediocrity. Losers in five of six, Philadelphia will now be without A.J. Brown as Jalen Hurts plays through a finger injury suffered in the final week of the season.
That finger being bent the wrong way has not been discussed enough in my opinion. He won’t be able to throw deep as accurately, and in a potential negative game script, the Eagles could rely on pass-catching back Kenneth Gainwell down the stretch.
No Brown means more targets to be had and Hurts’ finger injury could result in shorter, more high-percentage looks. Who is better for the job than Gainwell?
While Tampa Bay boasts a strong defense when it comes to limiting explosive plays to running backs through the air — just 26 yards per game — they do allow nearly 4.5 receptions per game. Gainwell’s prop is currently slated at 1.5 receptions, a number that he’s gone over in two of the last three.
D’Andre Swift is going to get the lion’s share of the carries, but Gainwell should take control of the receiving game.
In an expected close bout and with the Eagles shorthanded, expect Gainwell to see an uptick in production. For what it’s worth, our Action Projections have this closer to 2.5 receptions, a 20.3% edge.
Maximize your Packers vs. Cowboys action with our DraftKings promo code.
DeVonta Smith Under 69.5 Receiving Yards
Eagles vs. Buccaneers | 8:15 p.m. ET
DeVonta Smith has become the de facto No. 1 receiver with A.J. Brown out, but with Hurts’ thumb injury and the added attention, his ceiling is not as high as it normally is.
I am looking to fade Smith, who is most dangerous as a deep threat. Philadelphia will definitely try to get him the ball on screens and other high-percentage throws, but Tampa Bay should limit explosive plays.
The Buccaneers also blitz at the third-highest rate, and that’s where Hurts has seen a drop-off in production. His rating drops nearly 15 points when blitzed compared to a clean pocket. His touchdown-to-interception ratio drops from nearly 2:1 to 1:1.
All this to say I’m expecting the Eagles to rely on the run game and their running backs on Monday night. Even Dallas Goedert should see a huge bump in targets. But Smith is among the players who’ll see a decrease in production.
Our Action Projections have this closer to 60 yards, about a 10% edge in the market.
Under 43
Eagles vs. Buccaneers | 8:15 p.m. ET
We keep discussing Hurts’ struggles due to his injured finger and a blitz-happy Tampa Bay defense. No Brown and less deep shots to Smith should translate to a more run-heavy approach and less successful drives.
The Buccaneers actually rank inside the top 10 in defensive DVOA against the run, which should play perfectly into a low-scoring game script. The Eagles' offense, which is already entering with issues, could very well sputter.
Then we get to Baker Mayfield, who is questionable for the game. He’ll suit up and play through injury, but at what expense? The Buccaneers didn’t score a touchdown in a meaningful Week 18 game with the Carolina Panthers, a game they could’ve easily lost.
As bad as the Eagles defense has been, I’m not sure how Mayfield — who is not at 100% — is going to carve up this defense.
Not to mention that my colleague Nick Giffen is on this under thanks to our handy dandy luck rankings. That could’ve been my argument in and of itself.
This number could very well keep dropping, but I’m expecting a gross, low-scoring bout Monday night.
