Eagles vs. Bucs Odds
| Spread | Bucs -7 |
| Over/Under | 47 (-110/-110) |
| Time | 1 p.m. ET |
| Day | Sunday |
| TV | FOX |
| Odds via DraftKings as of writing. Find real-time NFL odds here. | |
When the Bucs and Eagles faced off in Week 6, Tampa Bay won 28-22 in Philadelphia, but failed to cover the 7-point spread. Now the Bucs are laying 7-7.5 points (depending on the book) for their rematch against the Eagles on Wild Card Sunday of the 2022 NFL playoffs.
Can Tom Brady and Co. cover the spread at home this time? Or will their key offensive absences leave the backdoor open for Jalen Hurts and Co.? Our analysts are split — they make their cases for both sides below, plus reveal their other bets for this matchup.
Eagles vs. Bucs Picks
| Click on a pick to skip ahead |
|---|
| Eagles Spread |
| Bucs Spread |
| 1H Under 23.5 |
| Breshad Perriman Under 39.5 Rec Yards |
Eagles-Bucs Spread Picks
| Eagles | Bucs |
|---|---|
| 2 | 1 |
Case For Eagles To Cover
| Analyst | Bet To |
|---|---|
| Billy Ward | +7.5 |
| Phillip Kall | +7.5 |
written by Billy Ward
The Eagles' offensive game plan will be interesting for this one. No team runs the ball at a higher rate than the Eagles. On the other hand, no team faces a higher pass-play rate than the Bucs.
The Eagles don’t just run the ball often, they run the ball well. They rank third in Football Outsiders' rush DVOA, thanks largely to the dual-threat ability of Jalen Hurts. Of course, they’re also an above-average passing team by DVOA (which is calculated on a per-play basis — not overall).
When these teams met earlier this season, Hurts attempted just 26 passes. However, the Eagles have shifted even more to the run since then, so I’m anticipating they keep it on the ground as long as possible. Hurts did have success on the ground in that first meeting, rushing for two touchdowns. He should once again have lanes against this blitz-heavy defense (38.5%; first in the league).
Overall, the Eagles are the healthier team right now, and have the superior rushing attack. That latter factor will be of extra importance if this game turns out to be as wet and windy as expected — slippery conditions clearly favor the team more comfortable running the ball.
Case For Bucs To Cover
| Analyst | Bet To |
|---|---|
| Brandon Anderson | -8.5 |
written by Brandon Anderson
It hasn’t been the smoothest ride, but the Bucs are back. And for the second straight postseason, they'll start their journey against an NFC East foe. Last season was Washington; this season it’s Philadelphia.
The Bucs took care of business against the Football Team, and I expect them to do the same here.
The Eagles had a tale of two seasons, starting 3-6 but finishing 6-2 to clinch the NFC's final seed. After a breakout game against the Lions midway through the schedule, the Eagles adopted a run-first mentality. They entered Week 18 ranked third in rushing DVOA — they're winning games in the trenches and racked up wins by running it down opponents' throats.
A closer look helps us understand why, though: The competition was terrible.
There were wins over the Lions and Jets. There was a pair of games against the Giants — the worst team in the league down the stretch — and the Eagles lost one of them, plus two wins over the Football Team, whose season tailspun with COVID late. Wins over the Broncos and Saints aren’t worth much, either.
The Eagles played only three teams better than .500 over the back half of the season and lost two of them. They did play six games against playoff teams, but weren't competitive in any, losing all six and failing to cover in five.
Did the Eagles really turn the corner? Or did they just stop playing good teams?
Meanwhile, the Bucs went 5-1 against playoff teams and enter the postseason having won seven of eight. Their run defense sputtered midseason, but still finished top 10 in Expected Points Added (EPA) and top-three over the final four games.
Earlier this week, I was happy to bet the Bucs in the 8.5-9.5 range and thought they had value all the way to 12 or 13. With the bad weather and Leonard Fournette ruled out, though, I wouldn’t go that far. But his absence may just push Brady to pass on a bearable secondary anyway, and the Bucs are the far better team, so I’m still willing to play.
If you’d rather tease Tampa down, I like that angle, too.
More Eagles-Bucs Predictions
1H Under 23.5
written by Stuckey
Heavy winds for Hurts and a rush-heavy offense against this Bucs defense doesn’t bode well for the Eagles offense. Meanwhile, the Eagles have basically had two weeks to prepare for Tom Brady with the Bucs emerging as their likely opponent after Week 17, so I expect the Eagles to have a few wrinkles up their sleeve that may cause Brady to take some time to diagnose.
Regardless, the Eagles will make the Bucs methodically drive the ball up and down the field. Plus both of these offenses have started slow out of the gate lately.
I also expect Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni to potentially call his first playoff game too conservative early on, while Bruce Arians has been the most conservative fourth-down coach in the NFL this season.
Breshad Perriman Under 39.5 Rec Yards
written by Sean Koerner
With Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown out, Perriman enters the 2021 playoffs as Tom Brady's No. 3 WR. Perriman has a ton of upside as a result, but this market is overinflated.
Weather could be an issue considering the forecast in Tampa Bay calls for sustained 15-20 mph wind, with gusts up to 30 mph, so I expect the Bucs to lean on their run game with a more conservative passing attack underneath. As a result, the chances of Perriman hauling in a deep pass in this game are lowered significantly.
His man vs. zone splits, per PFF, also suggest he could struggle against a zone-heavy defense like the Eagles:
- vs. man: 2.47 yards per route run
- vs. zone: 0.52 yards per route run
I'm projecting Perriman closer to 29.5 yards and would bet this under down to 35.5 yards.
